EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Czechoslovak Group AS: H125 Results - headlines

• USDCHF takes another small leg higher, a function of the Fall in the Swiss Index, SMI opened some 2% lower after coming back from a holiday, the Index has caught up following the Swiss tariff announcement.
• As noted earlier, while the CHF is the worst performer in G10 against the Dollar, USDCHF would need a rally all the way to 0.8161 to reverse Friday's NFP sell Off, the cross could now be eyeing a test to the 0.8100 handle.

• RES 4: 1.4111 Apr 10  
• RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
• RES 1: 1.3879 High Aug 1
• PRICE: 1.3775 @ 08:06 BST Aug 4
• SUP 1: 1.3716/3557 20-day EMA / Low Jul 03
• SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
• SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

A short-term bullish corrective phase in USDCAD remains in play despite sharp weakness Friday. On the recent run higher, price traded through the 50-day EMA at 1.3739 and this has been followed by a break of resistance at 1.3798, the Jun 23 high. Clearance of 1.3798 represents an important short-term bullish development, signaling scope for a stronger recovery. Sights are on 1.3920 next, the May 21 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3716, the 20-day EMA. 

• RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
• RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
• RES 2: 0.6677 0.764 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 11 - 17 price swing  
• RES 1: 0.6530/6625 High Jul 29 / 24 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 0.6458 @ 08:01 BST Aug 1
• SUP 1: 0.6419 Low Aug 1
• SUP 2: 0.6373 Low Jun 23 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.6354 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Jul 24 upleg  
• SUP 4: 0.6323 Low Apr 16

AUDUSD rallied well off the week’s lowest levels last week on broad USD weakness. Last week, the pair traded through both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This undermined the recent bullish theme and signals the likely start of a corrective cycle. Note that support 0.6455 the Jul 17 low, has also been cleared. The breach strengthens a bearish threat and signals scope for an extension towards 0.6373, the Jun 23 low. Key resistance has been defined at 0.6625 the Jul 24 high. It also represents the bull trigger.