RENEWABLES: CWE Morning Wind Forecast

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance 
• RES 3: 1.4177 Channel top drawn from Jul 23 low
• RES 2: 1.4140/67 High Nov 5 / 50.0% of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 1.4131 High Nov 21  
• PRICE: 1.4106 @ 08:06 GMT Nov 24
• SUP 1: 1.4037/3982 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 1.3908 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low
• SUP 3: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 1.3833 Low Sep 24  

A bullish USDCAD condition remains intact following last week’s gains. Sights are on 1.4140, the Nov 5 high and the next important resistance. Note too that the top of the bull channel, drawn from the Jul 23 low, is at 1.4185 and also represents a key resistance. For bears, key support to watch lies at 1.3982, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would expose the base of the channel at 1.3908.

Headlines from Sky News reported that the OBR will downgrade growth in each year of the forecast from 2026 onwards, discussed on a podcast. https://x.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1992865142342643749

• "EXC: OBR will say growth is lower in 2026 and every year of Pt on Wednesday. "Reeves will argue gvt decision not responsible for lower growth than Spring OBR report… but Treasury hopes to surprise with bigger than expected headroom."

No surprise at all that the growth forecasts are all downgraded. That goes hand in hand with the productivity growth downgrades. Unless there are any specific numbers this isn't really "new" news.

• RES 4: 0.6660 High Sep 18 
• RES 3: 0.6644 76.4% retracement of the Sep-Oct bear leg
• RES 2: 0.6618 High Oct 29 and a key near-term resistance  
• RES 1: 0.6506/6580 20-day EMA / High Nov 13 
• PRICE: 0.6462 @ 07:58 GMT Nov 24 
• SUP 1: 0.6421 Low Nov 21
• SUP 2: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6404 38.2% retracement of the Apr 9 - Sep 17 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23   

A sell-off last week in AUDUSD reinforces a bearish theme. The pair has breached 0.6440, the Oct 14 low and a key short-term level. The clear break opens 0.6415, the Aug 21 / 22 low and the trigger for a stronger downleg. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, this set-up continues to highlight a dominant downtrend. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6506, the 20-day EMA.