RENEWABLES: CWE Morning Wind Forecast

• RES 4: $71.45 - 76.4% retracement of the Jun 23 - Oct 20 bear leg  
• RES 3: $70.69 - High Jul 30
• RES 2: $69.29 - High Sep 26 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: $65.98 - High Oct 9 
• PRICE: $64.60 @ 07:05 GMT Nov 4
• SUP 1: $63.37/59.97 - Low Oct 24 / 20 and the bear trigger  
• SUP 2: $58.72 - Low May 5
• SUP 3: $57.99 - Low Apr 9 and a key support
• SUP 4: $56.05 - 2.00 proj of the Jul 30 - Aug 13 - Sep 26 price swing 

A short-term corrective bull cycle in Brent futures appears intact for now and the contract is trading closer to its recent highs. Price has recently traded through the 50-day EMA, at $64.72. Clearance of this hurdle signals scope for a stronger recovery. The next hurdle to monitor is  $65.98, the Oct 9 high. A clear breach of this level would expose a key resistance at $69.29, the Sep 26 high. Key support and the bear trigger lies at $59.97, the Oct 20 low.

There have been several drivers of the weakness in equities seen ahead of and through early London trade:

• U.S. tech name Palantir lost nearly 5% after hours, despite a firm earnings report, with analysts pointing to extreme valuations and the scale of the recent rally in the name as areas of concern.
• SK Hynix (a memory supplier to Nvidia) shares fell in Korea, following an unusual warning of “investment caution” from the Korea Exchange after the name rallied by over 200% in a 6-month period
• Comments from China warning the Netherlands to stop interfering in company affairs and urging the county to find a solution for the Nexperia issue (the Netherlands seized Nexperia, a unit of China's Wingtech). China stressed that it will firmly safeguard the rights of the company.
• The move then extended as e-minis broke below yesterday’s lows, with the S&P 500 contract closing the opening gap higher that was seen at the start of last week. Support in the S&P 500 e-mini comes in at the 20- (6,804.03) & 50- (6,698.11) day EMAs. The trend structure in the contract remains bullish.
• The NASDAQ e-mini leads the way lower across the 3 major contracts, last -1.35%.
• The move in equities has provided support to Tsy and Bund futures.
• It has also provided further tailwinds for the JPY. The yen was already benefitting from the Japanese Finance Minister pointing to one-sided, rapid moves in the JPY, while noting a high sense of urgency when it comes to monitoring the recent FX moves (not signalling imminent intervention, but leaning against further JPY declines). The JPY outperforms all G10 FX peers. Initial support in USD/JPY comes in at 153.27, followed by 152.06. The technical trend structure in the pair remains bullish at this stage.
• Crypto also lower against this backdrop, suffering from dented risk sentiment.

• RES 4: 123.14 1.764 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 3: 122.81 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 2: 122.53 1.500 proj of the Sep 3 - 11 - 25 price swing
• RES 1: 121.94 High Oct 17 / 22 and the bull trigger  
• PRICE: 121.29 @ Close Nov 3
• SUP 1: 120.74 High Aug 5 and a recent breakout level          
• SUP 2: 120.57 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 120.13 Low Oct 10 
• SUP 4: 119.48 Low Oct 7

The trend conditions in BTP futures remains bullish and recent weakness is - for now - considered corrective. Note the moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The bull trigger is 121.94, the Oct 17 / 24 high. Initial firm support to watch is 120.74, the Aug 5 high. The contract is overbought, a deeper retracement would allow this condition to unwind.