RENEWABLES: CWE Morning Wind Forecast

• As we noted last week, the earliest potential date for the UK Budget is now 12 November, with Wednesday dates possible through to 17 December (for more on this see UK FISCAL: November (or December) Budget?", 28 August).
• Politico has noted this morning that 26 November is the most likely date (which would be a week earlier than the earliest Budget held in recent years). And that the Budget date date is expected to be named today.

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 173.41/97 High Sep 2 / High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 172.93 @ 07:15 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 170.83 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1  
• SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23   

The trend structure in EURJPY remains bullish and sights are on the key resistance and bull trigger at 173.97, the Jul 28 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a continuation of the bull cycle. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position too, highlighting a primary uptrend. A break of 173.97 would open 174.86, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 170.83.

• RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 3: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance 
• RES 2: 149.81 76.4% retracement of the Aug 1 - 14 bear leg 
• RES 1: 148.94/149.12 High Sep 2 / 61.8% of Aug 1 - 14 bear leg  
• PRICE: 148.62 @ 07:09 BST Sep 3
• SUP 1: 147.12/146.21 50-day EMA / Low Aug 14 and bear trigger
• SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
• SUP 3: 145.40 50% retracement of the Apr - Aug upleg
• SUP 4: 145.19 Trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low 

USDJPY traded higher Tuesday. For now, the pair remains inside its range and resistance to watch is 148.78, the Aug 22 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a range breakout and a stronger bullish theme. This would also undermine the recent bear threat, and open 149.12, a Fibonacci retracement. The bear trigger lies at 146.21, Aug 14 low. Clearance of this level would resume a downtrend that started in  August.