RENEWABLES: CWE Morning Wind Forecast

• There's very little change for Bund going into the European session, the 2.80% Yield level has again held Yesterday, after also holding on Friday.
• As such, the initial support in Bund remains unchanged at around 128.57, printed a 128.64 low in Futures and a 2.791% high in Yield on Friday.
• Small resistance is at 129.18, followed by 129.62.
• There are no Tier 1 Data out of Europe, and the Canadian CPI will be the only notable release for North America Today.
• Main Focus this Week is on the UK CPI (wed), PMIs (thu), Japan CPI, and all eyes on Powell (fri).
• SUPPLY: UK £1.6bn 2035 Linkers (won't impact Gilts). Germany €4.5bn 5yr Bobl (equates to 42k Bobl) should weigh into the Bidding Deadline.
• SPEAKERS: Fed Bowman (x2).

• RES 4: $81.07 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $79.86 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $77.73 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $72.83 - High Jul 30 and a key resistance 
• PRICE: $66.30 @ 07:09 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: $65.01 - Low Aug 13
• SUP 2: $60.96 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.18 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.74 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures remain in a bear cycle and the contract is trading closer to its recent lows. Sights are on $65.01, the Aug 13 low, where a clear break would confirm a resumption of the bear leg and pave the way for an extension lower. A clear breach would open $60.96, the May 30 low. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $72.83, the Jul 30 high. Clearance of this level would cancel a bear theme.

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 173.97 High Jul 28 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 172.13 @ 07:16 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 170.19 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg
• SUP 3: 168.46 Low Jul 1  
• SUP 4: 167.46 Low Jun 23   

The underlying bull trend in EURJPY is intact and for now the recent move down appears to have been a correction. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA at 170.19. A clear break of the EMA is required to highlight a stronger short-term bearish threat. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a primary uptrend. A break of the Jul 28 high of 173.97, would resume the bull cycle.