RENEWABLES: CWE Morning Wind Forecast

• A very tight 13 ticks range for Bund overnight, the French GDP prelim beat had no impact on EGBs, and Bund edges higher on the Cash Open, this was Cash led, with no real notable sizes going through in futures.
• The early Attention should be on the US Treasuries with the Tnotes (TYU5) fast approaching the 4.30% support level, this Equated to 111.16+ Yesterday.
• TYU5 might still be just short of the 22nd July high of 111.14+, but the Yield is already below that level.
• Short term 1 Month Risk for Bund remains to the upside and the initial resistance is still seen at the 129.92/130.00 area.
• Support comes at 129.19, followed by 128.84.
• It is a busier day ahead, Europe will see some CPI and Growth Data, ECB Wage Tracker, and out of the US, ADP, GDP, Core PCE, Treasury refunding and of course the awaited FOMC.
• SUPPLY: Heavy Italian supply, the 2030s and 2035 (equates combined 55.3k BTP) will weigh, the 2034 floating won't impact the Bond. UK sells £300mln 2052, too small won't impact Gilt.
• SPEAKERS: Fed Powell Presser.

• RES 4: $83.02 - 3.000 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $81.07 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $79.86 - 2.618 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 1: $72.89/77.73 - 61.8% of the Jun 23-30 downleg / High Jun 23
• PRICE: $71.55 @ 07:06 BST Jul 30
• SUP 1: $67.61/65.06 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 30 
• SUP 2: $60.96 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $58.18 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $57.74 - Low Apr 9 and a key support   

Brent futures traded higher yesterday marking an extension of the corrective cycle that started Jun 30. The contract has traded through $71.40, the 50.0% retracement of the Jun 23 - 50 downleg. The next resistance to watch is $72.89, the 61.8% retracement point. On the downside, a reversal would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at $65.06, the Jun 30 low. A break of this level would resume the recent bearish theme. 

• RES 4: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 121.46/121.73 High Jul 22 / High Jun 13 and the bull trigger 
• RES 1: 120.92 High Jul 24  
• PRICE: 120.77@ Close Jul 29
• SUP 1: 119.59 Low Jul 25 and key short-term support         
• SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26 
• SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21  
• SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support 

The primary trend condition in BTP futures remains bullish and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. A doji candle on Jul 25, and Monday’s gains, highlight a potential bullish reversal. A continuation higher would open 121.46, the Jul 22 high and 121.73, the Jul 13 high and a bull trigger. Clearance of this latter level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Key short-term support has been defined at 119.59, the Jul 25 low.