RENEWABLES: CWE Morning Wind Forecast

• GERMANY GFK CONSUMER CLIMATE JUNE -19.9

German June GFK consumer confidence was essentially in line with consensus at -19.9 (cons -20.0), up slightly from May's -20.8.

• "Both the slight decline in the willingness to buy and the increasing willingness to save are currently having a dampening effect on consumer climate and are preventing the noticeable growth in income and economic prospects from having a stronger impact on the Consumer Climate this month. The savings indicator rises by 1.6 points in May – following a significant decline in the previous month – and climbs to 10.0 points".
• "Consumers' income expectations increase noticeably in May. The indicator gains 6.1 points, climbing to 10.4 points".
• "However, the willingness to buy cannot benefit from the noticeable rise in income prospects this month. After falling by 1.5 points, the indicator slips to -6.4 points"..."Despite improved income prospects, willingness to buy is not increasing. Uncertainty caused by the US government's unpredictable customs and trade policy and a rise in unemployment, which is causing many employees to worry about their own jobs, is continuing. This is causing consumer restraint, even though income expectations are currently viewed more positively".

• "Despite ongoing consumer uncertainty, their economic expectations for the next 12 months continue to rise: in May, the economic indicator increases by 5.9 points to reach a value of 13.1 points. This is already the fourth increase in a row. The last time a higher value was measured was about two years ago, in April 2023, at 14.3 points".

   

  

• RES 4: 150.49 High Apr 2   
• RES 3: 149.28 High Apr 3
• RES 2: 148.65 High May 12 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 144.49/145.73 20- and 50-day EMA 
• PRICE: 143.25 @ 06:53 BST May 27
• SUP 1: 142.12 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 139.89 Low Apr 22 and a bear trigger 
• SUP 4: 138.82 1.50 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing 

USDJPY maintains a softer tone and the pair has traded to a fresh short-term cycle low today. Support at 142.36, the May 6 low. Has been pierced, a clear break of it would open 139.89, the Apr 22 low and the next key support. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 148.65, the May 12 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is 145.73, the 50-day EMA. Short-term gains would be considered corrective.