RENEWABLES: CWE Morning Wind Forecast

• RES 4: $3600.0 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $3578.0 - 2.000 proj of the Dec 19 - Feb 24 - Feb 28 swing
• RES 2: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: $3386.6/3500.1 - High Apr 23 / 22 and the bull trigger         
• PRICE: $3259.6 @ 07:19 BST May 5
• SUP 1: $3202.0 - Low May 1 
• SUP 2: $3167.8 - High Apr 3 and a recent breakout level 
• SUP 3: $3164.3 - 61.8% retracement Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg
• SUP 4: $3115.1 - 50-day EMA 

Gold is trading closer to its recent lows and a corrective cycle remains in play for now. The yellow metal has breached the 20-day EMA. A continuation lower would highlight a deeper retracement and open the 50-day EMA, at 3115.11 - a key support. The primary trend direction remains up. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on $3500.0, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level resumes the uptrend.

• It's a UK market holiday today, however European and US markets are open as usual throughout. Newsflow over the weekend touches on familiar themes - with US trade deals potentially announced this week (deals with Japan and India are among the most advanced) and the President again voicing dissatisfaction in Fed's Powell ahead of this week's rate decision.
• The greenback is weaker against all others headed into the open, however pullbacks are shallow and markets still hold a decent part of last Friday's rally. Some nerves of the potential use of Japan's UST holdings in trade negotiations were allayed overnight, as the PM stated they would note use holdings as a bargaining chip.
• Meanwhile, Bunds are weaker in early Europe and have shown through last Friday's lows. Despite the latest move down, a bull cycle is in play, however weakness through 128.60 would change that outlook.
• US ISM Services data is the calendar highlight Monday. The Fed remain inside their pre-decision media blackout period.

• RES 4: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)       
• RES 3: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing    
• RES 2: 121.00 High Feb 7 (cont) and a key resistance  
• RES 1: 120.65 1.382 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing               
• PRICE: 119.92 @ Close May 2 
• SUP 1: 119.60/119.25 Low Apr 23 / 20-day EMA       
• SUP 2: 117.28 Low Apr 10     
• SUP 3: 116.06 Low Apr 9  
• SUP 4: 115.75 Low Apr 14 and a bear trigger     

BTP futures are in consolidation mode. A bull cycle remains intact and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The recent break of a key resistance at 120.39, the Feb 28 high, reinforces a bullish theme. Sights are on 120.65 next, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support to watch lies at 119.25, the 20-day EMA. The contract is overbought, a pullback would unwind this trend condition.