RENEWABLES: CWE Morning Solar Forecast

• RES 4: 152.31 High Feb 19 
• RES 3: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg 
• RES 2: 151.21 High Mar 28 
• RES 1: 150.92 High Aug 1 
• PRICE: 147.50 @ 07:52 BST Aug 6
• SUP 1: 146.67 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 2: 146.62 Low Aug 5
• SUP 3: 146.60 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 145.86 Low Jul 24  

USDJPY reversed sharply from Friday’s intraday high and this is allowing a short-term overbought condition to unwind. While the pullback in prices Friday may have been corrective, the break and close below 147.57, the 20-day EMA, is a concern. A clear break of this support zone would undermine the recent bull theme. A break of last week’s 150.92 high would resume the uptrend.     

• The German Buxl has caught up with the rest of the curve, the contract underperforms helping the curve from flatter into the Govie Cash Open to now tilting steeper.
• As noted on the earlier Bund Opening comment, the German long end supply could weigh in early trade.
• The lower liquidity could also be helping, Buxl is quoted 3 ticks wide at times.

• RES 4: 0.8835 High May 3 2023  
• RES 3: 0.8800 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 0.8781 2.236 pro of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
• RES 1: 0.8735/8769 High Aug 3 / High Jul 27 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 0.8704 @ 07:49 BST Aug 6
• SUP 1: 0.8611 Low Jul 31 
• SUP 2: 0.8597 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30 
• SUP 4: 0.8508 Low Jun 27

The trend set-up in EURGBP is bullish and the latest recovery from last Thursday's low signals the end of the short corrective pullback between Jul 28 - 31. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a clear uptrend. Key resistance and the bull trigger is at 0.8769, the Jul 27 high. On the downside, support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA 0.8601. A clear break of it would strengthen a bear threat.