RENEWABLES: CWE Morning Solar Forecast

• RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing    
• PRICE: $37.349 @ 07:50 BST Aug 5  
• SUP 1: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 
• SUP 2: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
• SUP 3: $33.940 - 50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - Jul 23 bull leg  
• SUP 4: $32.958 - Low Jun 2

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish despite the recent unconstructive price action. The pullback off the late July highs is considered corrective - particularly as prices have recovered off support at the $36.604 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, but a clear break of it is needed to strengthen a short-term bearish threat and allow for a deeper retracement. This would open $35.285, the Jun 24 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the next objective at $39.655 a Fibonacci projection.    

Much stronger-than-expected headline (3.8% M/M vs 0.6% cons, -0.7% prior) and manufacturing (3.5% M/M vs 1.2% cons, -1.2% prior) IP print from France. The manufacturing reading was the highest sequential growth rate since 2020.

From INSEE: "In June 2025*, output increased strongly in the manufacture of transport equipment (+16.6% after +0.3%): this exceptional increase was mainly driven by the manufacture of “other transport equipment (manufacture of aircraft, building of ships, manufacture of railway locomotives...)” (+26.7% after +1.8%), and more precisely in the manufacture of aircraft and spacecraft. It was due to the catching up on the month of delays accumulated on the quarter and the removal of constraints on supply chain for some companies in this sector."

The print helps Bunds to fresh session lows (now +3 at 130.30), but it's still a very contained reaction.

• RES 4: $3547.9 - 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 3: $3500.1 - High Apr 22 and bull trigger
• RES 2: $3451.3 - High Jun 16  
• RES 1: $3385.4/3439.0 - High Aug 4 / 23             
• PRICE: $3366.9 @ 07:44 BST Aug 5 
• SUP 1: $3268.2 - Low Jul 30 
• SUP 2: $3248.7 - Low Jun 30 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: $3204.7 - Low May 20
• SUP 4: $3121.0 - Low May 15 and key support 

Gold benefited from the soft NFP print on Friday, returning prices toward the top-end of the recent range. This supports the view that short-term weakness is corrective - for now - and a bull cycle that started Jun 30 remains intact. However, the yellow metal has traded through support at $3319.9, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level continues to signal scope for a deeper retracement and exposes the next key support at $3248.7, the Jun 30 low. Key near-term resistance is $3439.0, the Jul 23 high.