RENEWABLES: CWE Morning Solar Forecast
See the latest CWE Solar forecast for peak-load hours starting this morning for the next seven days. CWE peak solar output is forecast to be on a general upward trend over 7-10 July, only bucking the trend on 8 July, reaching as high as a 35% load factor.
CWE Solar for 4-10 July
- 4 July: 62.87GW
- 5 July: 42.21GW
- 6 July: 35.31GW
- 7 July: 39.68GW
- 8 July: 37.51GW
- 9 July: 50.11GW
10 July: 57.23GW
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Historical bullets
BUNDS: Edging towards the interesting resistance area
- The German Bund (June is still front Month) has continued to extend back higher this Morning, a continuation from the bounce seen Yesterday afternoon following the poor US ISM Mfg Data.
- The Japanese 10yr Auction saw good demand, and this combined with some likely positioning ahead of the EU prelim CPI, means that the Bund is slowly edging back towards that initial resistance area of interest seen at 131.72, 131.90 (gap), and 132.03 (April high).
- Small support moves up to 130.94.
- Aside from the Swiss and EU CPIs, Today sees the US Factory Orders, final Durables Goods and JOLTS.
- SUPPLY: UK £1.25bn 40yr (equates to 18.7k Gilt) could weigh, Austria 2029, 2035 (won't impact Bund), Germany €4.5bn 2yr (equates to 47.7k Schatz) will weigh into the bidding deadline.
- SPEAKERS: UK Policy makers are at the Treasury Committee, Fed Goolsbee, Cook, Logan are also due.
BRENT TECHS: (Q5) Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: $75.33 - High Feb 20
- RES 3: $73.88 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: $69.73 - 61.8% retracement of the Apr 2 - 9 sell-off
- RES 1: $65.28/66.30 - 50-day EMA / High May 13
- PRICE: $64.76 @ 07:05 BST Jun 3
- SUP 1: $62.09/57.78 - Low May 30 / Low April 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $55.88 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 3: $54.70 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
- SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support
The medium-term trend condition in Brent futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and recent gains still appear to have been a correction. Attention is on $65.28, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced. A clear break of the EMA would highlight a stronger bull cycle and expose $67.73, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, a clear reversal lower from recent highs would open $57.78, the Apr 9 low.
EURJPY TECHS: Sights Are On The Bull Trigger
- RES 4: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 166.10 High Nov 6
- RES 2: 165.21/43 High May 13 and bull trigger / High Nov 8 2024
- RES 1: 164.26 High May 29
- PRICE: 163.37 @ 07:10 BST Jun 3
- SUP 1: 162.53/161.09 50-day EMA / Low May 23 and key support
- SUP 2: 160.99 Low Apr 22
- SUP 3: 160.01 50% Retracement Feb’25 - May’25 Upleg
- SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9
A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact. The recovery from the May 23 low signals the end of the corrective pullback between May 13 - 23. If correct, the move higher also marks a resumption of the uptrend. Key short-term support lies at 161.09, the May 23 low, where a break is required to highlight a stronger reversal and suggest scope for a deeper correction. Sights are on 165.21, the May 13 high and bull trigger.
