RENEWABLES: CWE Morning Solar Forecast

• The German Bund saw some little selling to test session low pre Cash open, a 20 ticks drop, but very little volume went through, circa 2k for that 20 minutes period pre open.
• The 130.75/130.70 area has still held, although did print as low as 130.66 Yesterday.
• Next support would be at 130.54 (50 day EMA), although better is seen towards 130.27.
• Resistance moves down 131.24.
• The US 10yr Yield will continue to be watched, traded near the 4.40% level Yesterday (4.3746% high), today this level comes at 110.23 in TYM5.
• There are no real Tier 1 Data for the session, the German Factory Orders saw a big beat on the Cash Open, but Bund actually went bid, not a non Market mover.
• For the rest of the day, Italian and EU Retail Sales are unlikely to move the needle, the US Session sees no Data of note, the main Focus {us} is on the FOMC Today (expected unchanged), the biggest event for the Week.
• SUPPLY: France 10s, 12s, 15s, UK sells £4.5bn 2030 (equates to 21.7k Gilt) could weigh.
• SPEAKERS: Fed Chair Powell's presser.

• RES 4: $78.10 - High Jan 15  
• RES 3: $75.81 - High Feb 20
• RES 2: $74.63 - High Apr 2 and a bull trigger
• RES 1: $64.24/67.17 - 20- and 50-day EMA values           
• PRICE: $62.71 @ 07:06 BST May 7
• SUP 1: $58.00 -Low April 9 and the bear trigger     
• SUP 2: $56.29 - 2.236 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 3: $55.10 - 2.382 proj of the Feb 20 - Mar 5 - Apr 2 price swing
• SUP 4: $54.00 - Round number support

A bearish theme in Brent futures remains intact and recent weakness reinforces current conditions. Last week’s price action confirms recent gains between Apr 9 - 23 as corrective that allowed an oversold condition to unwind. Sights are on $56.29 a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, key resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at $67.17. Initial resistance is at $64.24, the 20-day EMA.

• RES 4: 165.92 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 165.43 High Nov 8        
• RES 2: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance   
• RES 1: 164.63 High Mar 18 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 162.54 @ 07:11 GMT May 7
• SUP 1: 161.70/60 50-day EMA / Low May 6     
• SUP 2: 160.99 Low Apr 22
• SUP 3: 159.48 Low Apr 9   
• SUP 4: 158.56 61.8% retracement of the Feb 28 - May 2 bull leg   

A bullish theme in EURJPY remains intact despite the pullback from the May 2 high. The recent print above key resistance at 164.19, Mar 18 high, is a positive development for bulls. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the upleg that started Feb 28. This would open 164.90 next, the Dec 30 ‘24 high. First key support to watch is 161.70, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break would undermine the bullish theme.