SNB: Cut Should Keep Monetary Conditions Apt, Intervention Importance May Rise

Of Note:

EURUSD 2.92bn between 1.1245/1.1300.

EURUSD 1.14bn at 1.1250 (wed).

USDJPY 1.49bn at 144.00 and 2bn at 145.00 (fri).

• EURUSD: 1.1195 (1.24bn), 1.1200 (349mln), 1.1220 (243mln), 1.1245 (727mln), 1.1250 (769mln), 1.1275 (248mln), 1.1300 (1.18bn).
• USDJPY: 145.00 (845mln).
• USDCAD: 1.3900 (339mln), 1.3915 (454mln).

A downtrend in WTI futures remains intact and recent gains are considered corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.90, the 50-day EMA. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal. This would open $65.82, the Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. Clearance of this support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend. A bearish corrective cycle in Gold remains in play and price is trading closer to its recent lows. A key support at $3202.0, the May 1, low has been breached. The break of this level signals scope for a deeper retracement, towards $3085.0, 76.4% of the Apr 7 - Apr 22 upleg. Note that the 50-day EMA at $3171.7, has also been breached, strengthening a bearish threat. Initial resistance is $3256.6, the 20-day EMA.

• WTI Crude up $0.48 or +0.77% at $63.17
• Natural Gas up $0.04 or +1.28% at $3.154
• Gold spot down $0.36 or -0.01% at $3229.62
• Copper down $5.7 or -1.22% at $461.2
• Silver up $0 or +0.01% at $32.369
• Platinum up $9.62 or +0.96% at $1011.59

A bullish theme in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact and price has traded to a fresh short-term cycle high. The contract is extending the recent breach of 5263.01, 76.4% of the Mar 3 - Apr 7 bear leg, and maintains the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 5516.00, the Mar 3 high and the key bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5190.67, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would signal a possible reversal. A bullish trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains intact and the contract is holding on to its latest gains. An important resistance at 5837.25, the Mar 25 high and a bull trigger, has been cleared. This strengthens the current bullish theme, and paves the way for a continuation near-term. Sights are on the 6000.00 handle next. Initial firm support to watch lies at 5693.1, the 50-day EMA.

• Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 30.86 pts or +0.08% at 37529.49 and the TOPIX ended 0.44 pts higher or +0.02% at 2738.83.
• Elsewhere, in China the SHANGHAI closed higher by 12.895 pts or +0.38% at 3380.478 and the HANG SENG ended 348.76 pts higher or +1.49% at 23681.48.
• Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades higher by 21.61 pts or +0.09% at 23956.04, FTSE 100 higher by 43.22 pts or +0.5% at 8742.63, CAC 40 up 9.97 pts or +0.13% at 7893.62 and Euro Stoxx 50 up 6.74 pts or +0.12% at 5434.06.
• Dow Jones mini down 75 pts or -0.17% at 42810, S&P 500 mini down 20 pts or -0.33% at 5962.5, NASDAQ mini down 92.5 pts or -0.43% at 21433.75.