US TSYS: Curves Twist Steeper, Quiet Return from Christmas Holiday
Dec-26 20:17
- Treasuries look to finish mixed Friday, curves twisting steeper with 2s-10s holding modestly higher vs. weaker Bonds after the bell.
- Currently, the TYH6 contract trades +2.5 at 112-19 vs. 112-23 early session high, on light post Christmas holiday volume of just over 650,000. 10Y yld near steady at 4.1336%. Key short-term resistance into 112-31, the Dec 18 high.
- Projected rate cut pricing gained vs. late Wednesday levels (*): Jan'26 at -5bp (-3.3bp), Mar'26 at -15.2bp (-12.3bp), Apr'26 at -21bp (-18.1bp), Jun'26 at -35.2bp (-31.1bp).
- US$ index near midrange after bouncing off midmorning lows, Bbg index BBDXY +0.21 at 1200.86
- Mining shares continued to buoy the Materials sector after Gold climbing to new record highs early Friday (4,549.92), trading desks citing an uptick in geopolitical tensions after Pres Trump launched attacks on Isis elements in Nigeria.
- Look Ahead: Monday data sees Pending Home Sales MoM (1000ET), Dallas Fed Mfg Activity (1030). COMC minutes for the December meeting to be released at 1400ET Tuesday.
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US TSYS: BLOCK: Late Mar'26 5Y Sale
Nov-26 20:08
- -5,000 FVH6 109-25, sell through 109-27.75 post time bid at 1500:13ET, DV01 $213,300.
- The 5Y contract trades 109-28.25 last (-1.75)
EURJPY TECHS: Northbound
Nov-26 20:00
- RES 4: 184.34 2.000 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 3: 183.16 Bull channel top drawn from the Feb 28 low
- RES 2: 183.07 1.764 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 1: 182.01 High Nov 20 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 181.33 @ 16:33 GMT Nov 26
- SUP 1: 179.77 Low Nov 21
- SUP 2: 179.19/177.12 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 175.71 Low Nov 5
- SUP 4: 175.03 Bull channel support drawn from the Feb 28 low
A bull cycle in EURJPY remains intact and the cross is trading closer to its recent highs. The move higher last week confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are 183.16, the top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low. First key support lies at 179.19, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
FED: Beige Book: Employment Responses Continue Trend Deterioration
Nov-26 19:49
- You can clearly see the deterioration over time in the breadth of employment level responses in the table below.
- Whilst one district seeing a small increase isn’t unusual, there is starting to be a clearer shift to those seeing declines albeit still mostly only slight declines at this stage.
