US TSYS: Curves Twist Steeper, 5s30s At Sep'25 Highs
- Treasury futures remain mixed after the bell, curves twist steeper after bonds reversed course/extended lows after Pres Trump spoke on a host of topics including April 2 "Liberation Day" when reciprocal tariffs will bring money back to the US.
- Tsy 5s30s nears 60.0 (+5.147 at 59.336) the steepest since late September.
- Jun'25 10Y futures holding steady at 111-05.5, well within technicals: resistance above at 111-25 (High Mar 11), initial support below at 110-19 (20-day EMA).
- Bbg US$ index extended session high (1271.61) on headlines France wants the EU to consider deploying "anti-coercion .. tool: designed to strike back against nations that use trade and economic measures coercively".
- Meanwhile, stocks are paring losses, Super Micro Computer +7.11% and Boeing +3.47% leading gainers, BA surge after Trump said the plain maker won a $20B contract to produce next generation jet fighter.
- Focus on S&P flash PMIs Monday morning while more Fed speakers include Atlanta Fed Bostic on Bbg TV and Fed Gov Barr on small business lending late inb the afternoon.
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Historical bullets
USDJPY TECHS: Key Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 156.75 High Jan 23
- RES 2: 155.89 High Feb 3
- RES 1: 154.24/80 50-day EMA and a pivot resistance / High Feb 12
- PRICE: 151.51 @ 16:11 GMT Feb 19
- SUP 1: 150.93 Low Feb 07 and a bear trigger
- SUP 2: 149.69 Low Dec 9
- SUP 3: 148.65 Low Dec 3 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 4: 148.01 Low Oct 9 ‘24
USDJPY continues to trade below the Feb 12 high. Recent weakness highlights that - for now - a key resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 154.24, remains intact. A clear break of the EMA is required to confirm a stronger bullish reversal. This would open 155.89, the Feb 3 high. Key support and the bear trigger is unchanged at 150.93, the Feb 7 low. Clearance of this level would resume the bear cycle that started on Jan 10.
MNI: FED MINUTES: WANT FURTHER DISINFLATION BEFORE NEXT CUT
- FED MINUTES: WANT FURTHER DISINFLATION BEFORE NEXT CUT
- FED: CAN TAKE CAREFUL APPROACH ON CUTS GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
- FED SAW INCREASED UPSIDE RISKS TO INFLATION IN JAN MEET
- 'VAST MAJORITY' OF FOMC STILL BELIEVES POLICY RESTRICTIVE
- VARIOUS OFFICIALS-CAN SLOW OR PAUSE QT DUE TO DEBT TALKS
- TRADE, IMMIGRATION COULD HINDER DISINFLATION PROCESS-FED
EURGBP TECHS: Pivot Resistance Stays Intact For Now
- RES 4: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 3: 0.8420 76.4% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.8388 61.8% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.8347/78 50-day EMA / High Jan 6 and pivot resistance
- PRICE: 0.8278 @ 16:09 GMT Feb 19
- SUP 1: 0.8266/8248 Low Feb 19 / 3 and bear trigger
- SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support
- SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range
- SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg
EURGBP traded lower again overnight but - for now - remains inside a range. The early February bounce still appears to have undermined a recent bearish threat. Attention is on 0.8378, the Jan 6 high and a key short-term pivot resistance. Clearance of it would strengthen a bullish condition and signal scope for a stronger recovery. For bears, a resumption of weakness would once again refocus attention on 0.8248, the Feb 3 low and the bear trigger.
