EU REAL ESTATE: CTP NV: 2Q 25 (CTPNV; Baa3pos/BBB-/NR)
Continued strong performance. Slight positive though CTPNV bonds are fairly well established now at the wider end of the “normal” real estate space so limited upside for now.
- Gross Rent €367.2m +14.4%; +4.9% lfl
- Annualised Rent €757m.
- Seeing average rental growth of 5% yoy.
- Occupancy stable at 93%; 99.7% rent collection.
- H1 saw additional 224k spm @10.3% yield-on-cost.
- Total GLA 13.5m sqm.
- GAV +7% to €17.1bn
- LTV 44.9% down 40bps.
- Raised €1bn bonds in March and additional €700m in Loans and the Yen market.
- Average cost of debt 3.2% (+10bps); 99.9% is hedged or fixed rate.
- Upcoming CTPNV 2.125 25 will be repaid out of cash €185m.
- Reported ND/E 9.2x up 0.1x but within the target of <10x.
- ICR 2.4x
- Moody’s moved to Pos 28th May with potential upgrade over 12-24 months. Wants to see ICR >2.75x and ND/E <11x sustainably.
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Historical bullets
EU-BOND SYNDICATION: New 7-year Dec-32 / 3.75% Oct-45 tap: Books open
New 7-year Dec-32 EU-bond
- Size: E5bln (MNI expected E5-7bln, we still look for possible E6bln)
- Guidance: MS + 37bps area
- Coupon: Short first coupon
- Maturity: 13 December 2032
- ISIN: EU000A4ED0K0
3.75% Oct-45 EU-bond tap:
- Size: E3bln (MNI expected E3-5bln, we still look for possible E4bln)
- Guidance: MS + 97bps area
- ISIN: EU000A4EA8Y7 (immediately fungible)
For both:
- Settlement: 15 July 2025 (T+5)
- JLMs: BNP Paribas, Citi, Deutsche Bank (DM/B&D), J.P. Morgan, Nomura
- Timing: Books open, pricing later today
From market source
AUDUSD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 0.6700 76.4% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6688 High Nov 7 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.6590 High Jul 01
- PRICE: 0.6531 @ 07:58 BST Jul 08
- SUP 1: 0.6486 Low Jul 07
- SUP 2: 0.6472/6373 50-day EMA / Low Jun 23 and a reversal trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6357 Low May 12
- SUP 4: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
The trend set-up in AUDUSD remains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Recent gains maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows, the definition of an uptrend. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Scope is seen for a climb towards 0.6603 next, the Nov 11 2024 high. Initial firm support to watch is 0.6472, the 50-day EMA.
GILTS: Opening calls - Downside risks
Wide calls for Gilt, Bund has caught up with the Bobl to the downside, the German 5/10s is flatter but is unwinding the opening move, German 10yr Yield now test 2.67%
- Range for Gilt, 91.81/92.04, but potential downside risks.
