OIL: Crude Under Pressure on Report of Planned US-Iran Meeting

ERM5 97.875/98.00/98.125/98.25 call condor, sold out at 11 in 10k.

• Stronger than expected job openings have seen Fed Funds implied rates rise 1bp for Sep/Oct meetings and 2bp for the Dec 2025.
• Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 0.5bp Jun, 6.5bp Jul, 21.5bp Sep, 35.5bp Oct and 50.5bp Dec.
• It helps some continued paring of last week’s second half decline in implied rates although the Dec’25 is still 6bp lower than levels shortly before Thursday’s dovish jobless claims and GDP revisions.
• The SOFR terminal implied yield of 3.295% (SFRZ6) is 3.5bp higher post-data for 1bp higher on the day.

Following are the expected Instant Answers for the Bank of Canada interest-rate decision Wed at 945am EST:

• Overnight Rate Target  
• Does the Bank signal it is prepared to LOWER rates in the future? 
• Does the Bank signal it is prepared to RAISE rates in the future? 
• Does the Bank signal it intends to leave rates on hold?
• Does the Bank mention core inflation has been elevated or above the 2% target for headline CPI?
• Does the Bank say the trade war is boosting inflation or inflation expectations?
• Does the Bank say the risks to growth from the trade war appear to have eased?