FREIGHT: Crude Tanker Order Book at 9-Year High: Argus

Data on FX settlements from China's SAFE show the FX settlement ratio (a proxy for client willingness to settle FX) posting a sharp rise in September, to 71.2% from 61.2% in August. This is the highest level since August 2023 and is consistent with a sharp rise in exporters settling FX transactions in the month that covered USDCNY printing a new YTD low (Aug-Sept peak to trough was over 1.5%).

In contrast, the FX sales ratio (a proxy for client willingness to buy FX) was relatively stable at 63.3% (vs. August 67.7%), leading to a wider gap between settlement and sales in September. As a result, the FX settlement-sales spread has risen to a new 2025 high, and would be consistent with the weaker USD helping trigger the fastest pace of corporates closing out of FX positions relative to new FX exposure over the period.

Figure 1: FX Settlement/Sales Spread Highest of the Year

Source: MNI / SAFE / Bloomberg Finance L.P.

In addition, the SAFE data also shows an FX surplus totalling $51.1bln as a result of the rise of total FX purchases (up to $265bln from $212bln) outpacing the rise in FX sales (up to $214bln from $197bln). 

• MNI: US MBA: MARKET COMPOSITE -0.3% SA THRU OCT 17 WK

• In FX, EURUSD is trading lower today. The move down exposes key short-term support at 1.1542, the Oct 9 low. Clearance of this level would cancel a recent bullish signal following the recovery from the Oct 9 low. Instead, this would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started on Sep 17, and open 1.1516, 76.4% of the Aug 1 - Sep 17 bull leg. The pair needs to break above 1.1728, the Oct 17 high, to reinstate a bull theme.
• GBPUSD is trading lower today. The move down signals the end of the recent corrective bounce between Oct 14 - 17. The move down exposes key short-term support at 1.3249, the Oct 14 low and bear trigger. A breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the downleg that has been in place since Sep 17. Key near-term resistance has been defined at 1.3471, the Oct 17 high. A break would be bullish.
• USDJPY is holding on to its recent gains. The latest rally highlights a bullish reversal - last Friday’s price pattern is a hammer candle formation. The pattern signals the end of a corrective pullback that started Oct 10, and highlights the fact that support at the 50-day EMA, at 149.05, remains intact. The bull trigger is at 153.27, the Oct 10 high. The 50-day EMA is key support. A clear break of it would be bearish.