OIL: Crude Still Under Pressure Following US CPI Data
Feb-12 13:44
Crude prices are holding previous losses on the day following the higher than expected US CPI inflation data. The US dollar has strengthened with the index currently up 0.49% on the day.
- US CPI Jan'25 Unrounded % M/M (SA): Headline 0.467%; Core: 0.446% (0.210% prior mth, revised down from 0.225).
- Unrounded % Y/Y (NSA): Headline 3.000%; Core: 3.258% (3.238% prior mth)
- Crude prices are edging lower today with rising US crude inventories and oversupply concerns limiting upside pressure. Rising Middle East tensions and risks of sanctioning tightening supplies have been supporting oil markets, albeit weighed against the potential impacts of US tariffs.
- The OPEC MOMR keep global oil demand growth forecast for 2025 unchanged at 1.45mb/d.
- Technicals show WTI Mar25 contract support and bear trigger at the Fe. 6 low of $70.43/bbl while Brent support is $74.10/bbl.
- Brent APR 25 down 1% at 76.24$/bbl
- WTI MAR 25 down 1.2% at 72.42$/bbl
- WTI-Brent down 0.07$/bbl at -3.98$/bbl
- WTI MAR 25-APR 25 down 0.08$/bbl at 0.16$/bbl
- WTI JUN 25-DEC 25 down 0.19$/bbl at 2.53$/bbl
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PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Issuance Roundup: Get While Getting is Good
Jan-13 13:28
US$ corporate and supra-sovereign debt issuance resumes after last week's record $135.55B priced. Rush to secure cash ahead of the next earning's cycle that starts in earnest this week: Blackrock, Bank of NY Melon, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, US Bancorp, M&T Bank and PNC all reporting between January 15-16.
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/13 $3B KFW +5Y +43a
- 01/13 $2B CADES 5Y SOFR+70a
- 01/13 $Benchmark IFC 3Y SOFR+33a
- 01/13 $Benchmark CAF 5Y SOFR+90a
- 01/13 $Benchmark CBA 5Y SOFR+72a
- 01/13 $Benchmark EBRD 5.5Y SOFR+42
- 01/13 $Benchmark Ares Strategic 7Y +200a
- 01/13 $Benchmark BNG Bank 5Y SOFR+50a
- 01/13 $Benchmark KHFC 5Y +95a, 5Y SOFR
- 01/13 $Benchmark British Colombia 3Y SOFR+46a
- 01/13 $Benchmark Eastern Energy Gas 10Y +130a, 30Y +150a
- 01/13 $Benchmark Standard Chartered 4NC3, 4NC3 SOFR, 11NC10
- $5B Priced Friday for record high of $135.55B total on week
CANADA: GS See USD/CAD At 1.46 Over 12 Months
Jan-13 13:27
- Goldman Sachs: "We have shifted our forecasts to 1.46, 1.46, 1.46 (from flat at 1.39) in 3, 6, and 12 months" given more focused rhetoric on Canada tariffs from the new Trump administration.
- USD/CAD moving lower on last week's resignation news was "sensible , as it extinguished some near-term election risk and may have very marginally raised the probability that the current government lasts through the budget."
- However, "with Parliament prorogued and Trudeau in a caretaker role until a new party leader is selected, this could limit the ability of policymakers to challenge tariff rhetoric from the Trump administration."
- They don't see Trudeau's resignation altering the medium outlook for USD/CAD though.
US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Trump Noms Begin Senate Hearings On Tues
Jan-13 13:27
- Thirteen of US President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet nominees will face Senate scrutiny this week, with Defense Secretary nominee Pete Hegseth’s appearance before the Senate Armed Services Committee on Tuesday likely to be most closely followed.
- Republicans remain divided on the optimum strategy for legislation, despite a conflab between Trump and House Republicans at Mar-a-Lago over the weekend. GOP lawmakers warned that unanswered questions over strategy could push negotiations close to the December deadline to renew Trump's first-term tax cuts.
- Blue-state House Republicans exited meetings at Mar-a-Lago, confident that Trump will adhere to a campaign promise to raise the cap on State and Local Tax (SALT) deductions.
- Inflation concerns could prompt Trump to reevaluate aggressive 'Day 1' tariffs.
- The US Commerce Department issued new export controls to curb China's access to AI-related tech via third countries.
- President Biden will kick-off his farewell to US politics with a final foreign policy speech today at the State Department.
- The Kremlin said there are “no specific preparations” underway for a meeting between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
- The Foreign Ministers of Japan and South Korea agreed to continue trilateral cooperation with the United States, a sign that the landmark agreement struck at Camp David in 2023 could be durable.
- Ultranationalist Israeli officials could sink a breakthrough in Gaza ceasefire talks.
- Chart of the Day: The global reputation of US leadership remains fragile.
Full article: US Daily Brief
