COMMODITIES: Crude Rises, Precious Metals Rebound
Feb-11 19:24
- Crude rose to its highest since late-January, before paring gains, as the risk premium builds while the market looks for indications on the next steps in US-Iran negotiations.
- WTI Mar 26 is up by 0.9% at $64.6/bbl.
- The Trump administration has discussed whether to seize Iranian oil tankers to pressure Tehran but have held off amid concern for retaliation and the impact on global oil markets, US officials said cited by Bloomberg.
- Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal cites three officials saying the pentagon is preparing to send a 2nd aircraft carrier to the middle east.
- A bull cycle in WTI futures remains intact, with key resistance and the bull trigger at $66.48, the Jan 30 high. On the downside, attention is on support at the 20-day EMA, at $62.54.
- Meanwhile, precious metals have rebounded as the overarching bearish dollar narrative quickly reasserted itself in the aftermath of today’s US employment report, sapped the initial greenback enthusiasm.
- Spot gold is currently up by 1.3% at $5,092/oz, while silver has bounced by 4.6% to $84.5/oz.
- The latest bounce in gold highlights a retracement of the Jan 29 - Feb 2 sell-off, with the next resistance point to monitor at $5,139.9, a Fibonacci retracement level.
- For silver, initial firm resistance is at 86.960, the 20-day EMA, followed by $100.0 round number resistance.
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LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: ADP Wkly, CPI, New Home Sales, 30Y Re-Open
Jan-12 19:04
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
- 01/13 0600 NFIB Small Business Optimism (99.0, 99.4)
- 01/13 0815 ADP Weekly NER Pulse
- 01/13 0830 CPI MoM (0.3 est), YoY (2.7%, 2.7%)
- 01/13 0830 Core CPI MoM (0.3% est), YoY (2.6%, 2.7%)
- 01/13 0855 Redbook Retail Sales Index
- 01/13 1000 New Home Sales (715k est), MoM (-10.6% est)
- 01/13 1000 StL Fed Musalem outlook, Q&A event hosted by MNI
- 01/13 1130 US Tsy $75B 6W bill auction
- 01/13 1300 US Tsy $22B 30Y Bond auction re-open (912810UP1)
- 01/13 1400 Treasury Budget
- 01/13 1600 Richmond Fed Tom Barkin moderated discussion
- Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI
EURGBP TECHS: Bear Threat Remains Present
Jan-12 19:00
- RES 4: 0.8797 High Dec 17
- RES 3: 0.8774 High Dec 19
- RES 2: 0.8732 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.8703 Low Dec 30
- PRICE: 0.8670 @ 16:32 GMT Jan 12
- SUP 1: 0.8644 Low Jan 6
- SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15
- SUP 3: 0.8620 38.2% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
A sharp sell-off in EURGBP early last week confirms a resumption of the current bear cycle. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards 0.8620, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, resistance to watch is 0.8732 the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight a possible reversal.
PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: Waiting on Indonesia 3Pt US$ Debt Launch
Jan-12 18:56
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/12 $3B #Energy Transfer 5Y +110a, 10Y +145a, 30Y +175a
- 01/12 $2.25B #Vistra Operations $1B 5Y +95, $1.25B 10Y +120
- 01/12 $1.75B #National Bank of Canada $1.25B 3NC2 +63, $500M 3NC2 SOFR+77
- 01/12 $700M *POSCO $400M 5Y +75. $300M 10Y +90
- 01/12 $Benchmark Rep of Indonesia +5Y 4.7%a, +10Y 5.3%a, +30Y 5.8%a
- 01/12 $Benchmark investor calls: Jefferies, Triton Int, Rithm Capital, Telecom Argentina, Azule Energy
- Expected Tuesday:
- 01/13 $Benchmark MuniFin WNG 4Y SOFR
