COMMODITIES: Crude Rises, Precious Metals Rebound

• US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate). All times ET
• 01/13 0600 NFIB Small Business Optimism (99.0, 99.4)
• 01/13 0815 ADP Weekly NER Pulse
• 01/13 0830 CPI MoM (0.3 est), YoY (2.7%, 2.7%)
• 01/13 0830 Core CPI MoM (0.3% est), YoY (2.6%, 2.7%)
• 01/13 0855 Redbook Retail Sales Index
• 01/13 1000 New Home Sales (715k est), MoM (-10.6% est)
• 01/13 1000 StL Fed Musalem outlook, Q&A event hosted by MNI
• 01/13 1130 US Tsy $75B 6W bill auction
• 01/13 1300 US Tsy $22B 30Y Bond auction re-open (912810UP1)
• 01/13 1400 Treasury Budget
• 01/13 1600 Richmond Fed Tom Barkin moderated discussion
• Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. / MNI

• RES 4: 0.8797 High Dec 17   
• RES 3: 0.8774 High Dec 19 
• RES 2: 0.8732 50-day EMA
• RES 1: 0.8703 Low Dec 30 
• PRICE: 0.8670 @ 16:32 GMT Jan 12
• SUP 1: 0.8644 Low Jan 6
• SUP 2: 0.8633 Low Sep 15
• SUP 3: 0.8620 38.2% retracement of the Dec ‘24 - Nov ‘25 bull cycle 
• SUP 4: 0.8597 Low Aug 14

A sharp sell-off in EURGBP early last week confirms a resumption of the current bear cycle. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards 0.8620, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, resistance to watch is 0.8732 the 50-day EMA. A break of this average would highlight a possible reversal.  

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 01/12 $3B #Energy Transfer 5Y +110a, 10Y +145a, 30Y +175a
• 01/12 $2.25B #Vistra Operations $1B 5Y +95, $1.25B 10Y +120
• 01/12 $1.75B #National Bank of Canada $1.25B 3NC2 +63, $500M 3NC2 SOFR+77
• 01/12 $700M *POSCO $400M 5Y +75. $300M 10Y +90
• 01/12 $Benchmark Rep of Indonesia +5Y 4.7%a, +10Y 5.3%a, +30Y 5.8%a
• 01/12 $Benchmark investor calls: Jefferies, Triton Int, Rithm Capital, Telecom Argentina, Azule Energy
  • Expected Tuesday:
  • 01/13 $Benchmark MuniFin WNG 4Y SOFR