MNI Peru CB Preview – Feb 2026: Little Urgency To Cut Further

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Executive Summary

• The BCRP is widely expected to leave its benchmark reference rate unchanged at 4.25% for a fifth consecutive meeting in February, as inflation is converging to the 2% target and economic activity remains around its potential rate.
• The Board is likely to maintain a data dependent stance, keeping the door open to a further rate cut. However, with the policy rate already close to neutral there is little urgency to move at this juncture.
• Additionally, analysts believe the policy rate will not be used an instrument to lean against PEN appreciation pressures. 

The BCRP maintained its data dependent stance last month, while keeping its policy rate on hold again and providing no guidance on future rate decisions. The data since then have reinforced the view that the inflation backdrop remains benign, although the headline rate is slowly converging back to target, while economic activity figures surprised slightly to the downside. However, the unemployment rate also unexpectedly declined, and overall, the economy continues to grow close to its potential rate.