COMMODITIES: Crude Rises, Gold Declines As Trade Tensions Ease
May-08 18:48
- Crude has extended gains today on signs of easing trade tensions, with the US announcing a trade deal with the UK. Looming US-China trade talks on Saturday are also supportive.
- WTI Jun 25 is up by 3.2% at $59.9/bbl.
- OPEC oil output edged lower in April despite a scheduled output hike taking effect, according to a Reuters survey.
- From a technical perspective, a downtrend in WTI futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. Attention is on $54.67, the Apr 9 low and a bear trigger. Key resistance to watch is $63.73, the 50-day EMA.
- Meanwhile, spot gold has declined by another 1.7% to $3,307/oz, taking total losses over the last two sessions to 3.6% as trade tensions have eased.
- The yellow metal remains 2% higher week-to-date, however, as it has recovered from its recent lows. This recovery suggests that the correction between Apr 22 - May 1, is over.
- A continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at $3,500.1, the Apr 22 high.
- Key short-term support has been defined at $3,202.0, the May 1 low. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement.
- Elsewhere, copper has also fallen by another 1.2% to $460/lb, taking the decline over the last two sessions to 3.6%.
- A continuation of weakness would expose $436.00, the Apr 10 low.
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USDJPY TECHS: Gains Considered Corrective
Apr-08 18:30
- RES 4: 151.30 High Mar 3
- RES 3: 150.33/151.21 50-day EMA / High Mar 28 and reversal trigger
- RES 2: 149.00 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 148.18 Low Mar 20
- PRICE: 146.99 @ 16:30 BST Apr 8
- SUP 1: 144.56 Low Apr 4
- SUP 2: 144.13 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
- SUP 3: 143.43 Low Oct 2 ‘24
- SUP 4: 142.95 1.00 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
USDJPY maintains a bearish tone following last week’s sharp sell-off and the latest recovery is - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the downtrend and a break of Friday’s 144.56 low would signal scope for an extension towards 144.13, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance to watch is 149.00, the 20-day EMA. Resistance at the 50-day EMA, is at 150.33.
US TSY FUTURES: Curve Steepening Hits New Highs
Apr-08 18:28
Short end support gains traction in late trade, heavy volumes as curves twist steeper: 2s10s +10.26 at 51.71 -- steepest level since mid-February 2022:
US TSY OPTIONS: May'25 10Y Call Spread Buying
Apr-08 18:12
- +16,250 TYK5 113/114 call spds 11 vs. 111-18/0.11%
