COMMODITIES: Crude Rises Following Inventory Draw, Gold Rallies

• RES 4: 151.21 High Mar 28
• RES 3: 150.49 High Apr 2  
• RES 2: 149.38 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg 
• RES 1: 149.18 High Jul 16
• PRICE: 147.30 @ 17:09 BST Jul 21
• SUP 1: 146.92 Low Jul 16   
• SUP 2: 146.55 20-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 145.78 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 144.23 Low Jul 7 

A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in place despite the Monday sell-off and last week’s gains mark an extension of the current uptrend. The latest rally has resulted in a breach of  resistance at 148.03, the Jun 23 high, and a move through key resistance at 148.65, the May 12 high. The break strengthens the bullish theme and sights are on 149.38, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at 145.78, the 50-day EMA.  

President Donald Trump's approval rating continues to trend negative, as polls reflect a lukewarm response to the GOP's reconciliation package - the One Big Beautiful Bill - and elements of Trump's MAGA base express dissatisfaction with the administration's handling of the Jeffrey Epstein case. 

• Ruth Igelnik at the New York Times notes: "Recent polls have shown President Trump’s agenda to be largely unpopular with the public. A majority of Americans expect his signature domestic policy bill will hurt the country, disapprove of his handling of the files in the case of Jeffrey Epstein, and oppose deporting undocumented immigrants to countries other than their own, according to a recent Quinnipiac Poll. And an increasing share of Americans think Trump is focused on the wrong priorities, according to a CNN/SSRS poll."
• Silver Bulletin notes: "The share of Americans who strongly approve of Trump has also fallen below 27 percent for the first time in his second term. About 43 percent of Americans strongly disapprove of Trump."

Figure 1: Trump Approval Rating

Source: New York Times

• Both Brent and WTI futures sit moderately lower on Monday, although both are comfortably off session lows. Continued focus for global markets remains on US trade talks ahead of the August 1 tariff deadlines, amid EU preparations of countermeasures. Signs of a potential Russia-Ukraine meeting may have provided a headwind for oil prices, though tight diesel markets lent some support later in the session.
• Russia and Ukraine may hold talks on Wednesday or Thursday, according to various media reports. Trump has given Putin a 50-day deadline to reach a peace agreement.
• A bearish tone in WTI futures remains intact and the recovery since Jun 24 is considered corrective. The sharp reversal from the Jun 23 high continues to highlight scope for an extension lower. Support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $65.68.
• Elsewhere broad dollar weakness has been led by a bull flattening move for US treasuries, providing solid support for precious metals.
• According to TD Securities, macro funds have begun buying back their previously built short positions in gold, and there remains strong belief that gold can rise further as trade negotiations continuing, policy rate cuts, a stagflationary environment and challenges to central bank credibility provide a supportive backdrop.
• Today’s solid 1.3% advance for spot gold has exposed $3395.1, the Jun 23 high, and the next upside target is located at $3451.3, the Jun 16 high. Note that medium-term trend conditions are bullish - moving average studies are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend.