COMMODITIES: Crude Rises Amid Mid-East Tensions, Gold Retreats From Record High
- Crude has risen today amidst heightened tensions between Israel and Hamas and the threat of the ceasefire collapsing, raising the risk of regional escalation. The market is also weighing the impact of US tariffs and risks of sanctions tightening supplies.
- WTI Mar 25 is up by 1.4% at $73.3/bbl.
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has warned of a return to intense fighting if Hamas does not return Israeli hostages by Saturday.
- For WTI futures, initial resistance is at $75.18, the Feb 3 high, followed by $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high and a key resistance.
- Meanwhile, spot gold has reversed earlier gains, with yellow metal currently down by 0.2% to $2,902/oz.
- Early in the session, gold had reached a new record high of $2,942.68 amid investor concerns after President Trump raised tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to the US.
- A bull cycle in gold remains in play and analysts continue to see scope for a test of the $3,000 level. Before there, sights are on $2962.2 next, a Fibonacci projection.
- After a sharp rally over the last week, copper has fallen back today following the imposition of 10% tariffs on all goods from China. The red metal is down by 2.4% at $459/lb.
- Copper remains 7% higher month-to-date, and sights are on $480.00 next, the Sep 30 high and bull trigger. Key support is at $418.35, the Feb 3 low.
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Historical bullets
EURGBP TECHS: Resistance Cleared
- RES 4: 0.8471 61.8% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
- RES 3: 0.8448 High Oct 31 and reversal trigger
- RES 2: 0.8424 50.0% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 downleg
- RES 1: 0.8407 High Jan 9
- PRICE: 0.8386 @ 19:28 GMT Jan 10
- SUP 1: 0.8315/8284 50-day EMA / Low Jan 8
- SUP 2: 0.8263 Low Dec 31
- SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19
- SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 2022 and a major support
EURGBP traded sharply higher last week. The cross has breached resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 0.8311, and cleared the December highs. This undermines the recent bearish theme and suggests scope for a stronger short-term recovery. Note too that 0.8376, the Nov 19 high and a key resistance, has also been cleared. This opens 0.8424, a Fibonacci retracement. Support at the 50-day EMA is at 0.8315.
GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Sequence
- RES 4: 1.2672 50-day EMA
- RES 3: 1.2607 High Dec 30
- RES 2: 1.2533/2576 20-day EMA / High Jan 7
- RES 1: 1.2367 High Jan 9
- PRICE: 1.2208 @ 19:13 GMT Jan 10
- SUP 1: 1.2187 Low Nov 10 2023
- SUP 2: 1.2138 Low Nov 2 ‘23
- SUP 3: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.2037 Low Oct 4 ‘23 and a key support
The trend condition in GBPUSD remains bearish and last week’s sell-off reinforces the bear trend - the break lower confirms a resumption of the downtrend. The move down also marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant bear trend. Sights are on 1.2187 next, the Nov 10 2023 low. Initial resistance is at 1.2367, the Jan 9 high.
EURUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Sequence
- RES 4: 1.0630 High Dec 06
- RES 3: 1.0513 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.0437/58 High Jan 6 / High Dec 30
- RES 1: 1.0358 High Jan 8
- PRICE: 1.0239 @ 18:56 GMT Jan 10
- SUP 1: 1.0215 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 1.0201 61.8% of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg
- SUP 3: 1.0151 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 4: 1.0138 1.764 proj of the Sep 25 - Oct 23 - Nov 5 price swing
The trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish and recent short-term gains have proved to be a correction. Friday’s move lower resulted in a print below 1.0226, the Jan 2 low. A clear break of this level would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and mark an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on 1.0201 next, a Fibonacci retracement point. Resistance to watch is 1.0458, the Dec 30 high.
