OIL: Crude Rallies On Sharp US Drawdown

The overnight range was 147.08 - 148.30, Asia is currently trading around 147.35. USD/JPY continued to surprise the market by moving lower, one could surmise the election outcome had already been priced in and there were more negative scenarios that did not come to pass. The move lower in US yields provided further headwinds for the pair. The CFTC data showed the market is shifting its view on the JPY, with leverage funds just starting to build JPY shorts and Asset managers actively reducing their own. As a result I would expect some demand on dips first support is around 146.50/147.00 then 144.50/145.00.

• (Bloomberg) - “The yen is unlikely to get any lasting relief now that Japan’s upper house election is out of the way as negative real yields won’t be quickly addressed by the Bank of Japan.”
• “The yen rose but strategists warned of downside risks to the currency and JGBs due to the prospect of more government spending following PM Shigeru Ishiba’s election defeat.” - BBG
• Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 145.40($648m), 146.75($893m), 147.00($1.64b July 22).Upcoming Close Strikes : 147.50($1.45b July 24), 147.00($916m July 24) - BBG.
• CFTC data shows Asset managers starting to reduce JPY longs more aggressively +71610, while leveraged funds have started to build into a new short JPY position -12606.
• Data/Event : Trade Balance, Japan Weekly Investment Flow 

Fig 1 : USD/JPY Spot Hourly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

• RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
• RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
• RES 1: 141.48/142.95 - High May 2 / High Apr 7
• PRICE: 138.04 @ 16:58 GMT Jul 21
• SUP 1: 137.70 - Low Jul 16
• SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg  
• SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg

JGBs hold above recent lows, however a bearish theme remains intact following the reversal posted off the mid-June highs. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, the first important resistance to watch is 141.48, the May 2 high. A break of this level would be viewed as an early bullish signal. 

Oil prices continued to range trade on Monday as the market awaits the outcomes of trade negotiations with the US. It also appears not to think that the latest EU restrictions against Russia will materially impact global supplies. 

• WTI fell 0.4% to $67.07/bbl off the intraday low of $66.46 which followed a high of $67.76. Trading volumes were thin as the August contract will expire Tuesday. WTI crude is 3.0% higher this month. It has started trading today around $67.10 holding above initial support at $65.68, 50-day EMA.
• Brent is down 0.3% to $69.09/bbl and is now up 3.5% in July. It reached $69.83 late in APAC trading and then fell to $68.43. Initial support is at $65.92, June 30 low, while resistance is $72.66.
• Low sulphur distillate prices rose 0.7% following news that the EU would restrict Russian refined products and imports from countries that refine Russian crude. A major Indian refinery will be impacted but not until January.
• Ukraine and Russia are scheduled to meet for a third time in Turkey on Wednesday to negotiate a truce. The two sides have been unable to find common ground previously with the risk this occurs again remaining high.