OIL: Crude Rallies As Market Watches Rise In Product Prices

• RES 3: 97.796 - 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 12 - 15 price swing
• RES 2: 96.685 - 1.000 proj of the Sep 3 - 12 - 15 price swing 
• RES 1: 96.615 - High Sep 12  
• PRICE: 96.405 @ 15:40 BST Oct 10
• SUP 1: 96.280 - Low May 15 (cont.)  
• SUP 2: 95.900 - Low Jan 14 (cont.)
• SUP 3: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24

Aussie 3-yr futures have traded lower and the contract has cleared the Sep 3 low of 96.435. A break of this level negates the recent short-term bullish theme. This breach signals scope for an extension towards 96.280, the May 15 low on the continuation chart. The short-term resistance to watch is 96.615, the Sep 12 high. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate a bullish theme. 

The NZD/USD had a range Friday night of 0.5717 - 0.5758, Asia is trading around 0.5740(+0.30%). Some clarification from China over the weekend on their new rare earth export controls has seen the US walk back its aggressive stance and a more conciliatory tone is being set. I suspect a lot of Friday's moves will see some decent pullbacks on this, but how long it lasts is anybody's guess. The NZD had a poor weekly close and technically remains a sell on rallies now for those looking for a currency to be short of in their basket. The sell zone remains back toward the 0.5800 area with the market looking for a potential move back towards the 0.5500/0.5600 area.

• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5850(NZD300m Oct 14), 0.5950(NZD312m Oct 16) - BBG
• Data/Event: Performance Services Index, Net Migration SA

Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Weekly Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

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