COMMODITIES: Crude Pulls Back, Gold Edges Lower

• WTI has lost ground during US hours to be on track for its lowest close since early June. The EIA’s short-term energy outlook showed an upward revision in the expected supply surplus for 2025.
• The EIA now sees a supply surplus of 1.7m b/d this year, compared to a previous forecast for a 1.1m b/d surplus.
• WTI Sep 25 is down by 1.2% at $63.2/bbl.
• WTI futures remain below the 50-day EMA at $65.15, which keeps short-term momentum pointed lower. The clear break exposes $58.17, the May 30 low.
• Meanwhile, spot gold has edged up by 0.2% to $3,349/oz, with the yellow metal trading in a narrow range as US CPI data came in broadly in line with expectations.
• For now, a bull cycle in gold that started Jun 30 remains intact. Key near-term resistance is $3,439.0, the Jul 23 high.
• However, the yellow metal has previously traded through support at $3,334.0, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose the next key support at $3,248.7, the Jun 30 low.
• Elsewhere, copper has bounced by 1.9% to $452/lb, bringing the red metal to its highest level since July 31.
• However, copper remains well below the Jul 30 high, which cancels the recent bullish theme and instead highlights a bearish threat.
• A continuation lower would signal scope for a test of key support at $411.75, the Apr 7 low. Initial resistance to watch is at $497.25, the Jul 8 low.

• RES 4: 152.31 High Feb 19 
• RES 3: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg 
• RES 2: 151.21 High Mar 28 
• RES 1: 150.92 High Aug 1 
• PRICE: 148.16 @ 16:01 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 146.75 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 146.63 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 146.62 Low Aug 5
• SUP 4: 145.86 Low Jul 24  

USDJPY consolidated for much of last week, holding the bulk of the NFP losses. Price has bounced, but recoveries are shallow at this stage. This has allowed a previously overbought condition to unwind, and keeps the downside argument in focus. Prices are trading either side of the 147.59 20-day EMA, and the inability to build a base here will be a concern. A clear break of this support zone would undermine the recent bull theme. A break of last week’s 150.92 high would resume the uptrend.     

• US FISCAL YEAR-TO-DATE DEFICIT $1.629T, +7% VS FYTD 2024