COMMODITIES: Crude Pulls Back, Gold Edges Lower
Sep-11 18:44
- WTI has pulled back today as the market weighs expectations of increased October supply and future surpluses against geopolitical developments.
- WTI Oct 25 is down by 2.1% at $62.3/bbl.
- Saudi Arabia’s oil exports are set to jump this month as the twin impact of higher production and easing local demand from peak summer levels frees up supply, Bloomberg reports.
- The global oil market is caught in a “tug-of-war between increasingly bearish fundamentals and heightened geopolitical risks,” according to Citigroup.
- From a technical perspective, a bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact, with initial support at $61.29, the Aug 13 low and the bear trigger. A clearance of this level would pave the way for a move towards $57.71, the May 30 low.
- Initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high.
- Meanwhile, spot gold has edged down by 0.2% to $3,632/oz, as the yellow metal consolidates recent gains which saw it trade at an all-time high of $3,674.27 earlier this week.
- Bloomberg reports that this week’s gains also took bullion to a record high on an inflation adjusted basis, taking it above the previous January 1980 peak.
- Gold remains in a clear bull cycle, with the next objective seen at $3,674.8, a Fibonacci projection, followed by $3,700 round number resistance.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
COMMODITIES: WTI Falls, Gold Steady, Copper Bounces
Aug-12 18:37
- WTI has lost ground during US hours to be on track for its lowest close since early June. The EIA’s short-term energy outlook showed an upward revision in the expected supply surplus for 2025.
- The EIA now sees a supply surplus of 1.7m b/d this year, compared to a previous forecast for a 1.1m b/d surplus.
- WTI Sep 25 is down by 1.2% at $63.2/bbl.
- WTI futures remain below the 50-day EMA at $65.15, which keeps short-term momentum pointed lower. The clear break exposes $58.17, the May 30 low.
- Meanwhile, spot gold has edged up by 0.2% to $3,349/oz, with the yellow metal trading in a narrow range as US CPI data came in broadly in line with expectations.
- For now, a bull cycle in gold that started Jun 30 remains intact. Key near-term resistance is $3,439.0, the Jul 23 high.
- However, the yellow metal has previously traded through support at $3,334.0, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose the next key support at $3,248.7, the Jun 30 low.
- Elsewhere, copper has bounced by 1.9% to $452/lb, bringing the red metal to its highest level since July 31.
- However, copper remains well below the Jul 30 high, which cancels the recent bullish theme and instead highlights a bearish threat.
- A continuation lower would signal scope for a test of key support at $411.75, the Apr 7 low. Initial resistance to watch is at $497.25, the Jul 8 low.
USDJPY TECHS: Shallow Bounce
Aug-12 18:30
- RES 4: 152.31 High Feb 19
- RES 3: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 2: 151.21 High Mar 28
- RES 1: 150.92 High Aug 1
- PRICE: 148.16 @ 16:01 BST Aug 12
- SUP 1: 146.75 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 146.63 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 146.62 Low Aug 5
- SUP 4: 145.86 Low Jul 24
USDJPY consolidated for much of last week, holding the bulk of the NFP losses. Price has bounced, but recoveries are shallow at this stage. This has allowed a previously overbought condition to unwind, and keeps the downside argument in focus. Prices are trading either side of the 147.59 20-day EMA, and the inability to build a base here will be a concern. A clear break of this support zone would undermine the recent bull theme. A break of last week’s 150.92 high would resume the uptrend.
US FISCAL YEAR-TO-DATE DEFICIT $1.629T, +7% VS FYTD 2024
Aug-12 18:00
- US FISCAL YEAR-TO-DATE DEFICIT $1.629T, +7% VS FYTD 2024
Related bullets
Related by topic
Metals
Gasoil
Marine Oil
Oil Positioning (del)
OPEC
Freight
Jet Fuel
Gasoline
Fuel Oil
Diesel
Oil Options
Energy Data
US Natgas
TTF ICE
Asia LNG
Gas Positioning
