OIL: Crude Little Changed As Awaits Direction From The US
Oil is close to flat during APAC trading today with Brent around $80.70/bbl after an intraday low of $80.76 and WTI $77.44 following a drop to $77.25/bbl. US President-elect Trump said he’ll declare a national energy emergency to unlock powers, but the impact of his administration on oil prices remains unclear. The USD index is down 0.3%.
- Trump wants to use a “national energy emergency” to be able to increase domestic oil and gas production and reverse Biden’s climate change policies, according to Bloomberg. Uncertainty remains elevated though with no details on how this declaration would be used or its impact on domestic and global markets or if he will even be able to use it. Thus, there has been little market response to the news.
- In response to questions on the issue, Trump said on Sunday “we’re going to be using our emergency powers to allow countries and entrepreneurs and people with a lot of money build big plants, AI plants, ... We need double the energy that we already have”.
- Action on sanctions against Iran and Russia and tariffs on Canada, a large oil supplier to the US, are also significant uncertainties that oil markets are awaiting direction on. The Treasury secretary nominee Bessent has indicated that measures against Russia should be tightened.
- The US is closed for the Martin Luther King holiday but attention is on President-elect Trump’s inauguration later today and which executive orders he’ll sign on the first day.
- Later the Eurogroup meeting takes place and German December PPI, euro area November construction and the BoC business survey are released.
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TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU WANTS GOVT TO PREPARE FOR NEW US ADMINISTRATION
- TRUDEAU DOESN'T ADDRESS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS LEADERSHIP
USDCAD TECHS: A Pullback Would Be Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 1.4537 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4356 @ 16:56 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 1.4301 Low Dec 18
- SUP 2: 1.4174/4014 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. While price faded into the Thursday close, the recent breach of 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The latest rally opens 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4174, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 0.6550 High Nov 25
- RES 3: 0.6501 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 1: 0.6337/6396 Low Dec 11 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6263 @ 16:55 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 0.6199 Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and this week’s fresh cycle lows and Wednesday’s sell-off, reinforce a bear theme. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The break lower opens 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6396, the 20-day EMA.
