OIL: Crude Holding Most Gains Amid Supply Concern Following Sanctions

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 174.65 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 174.58 @ 07:28 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: 173.26/172.03 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 170.97 Low Aug 14 
• SUP 3: 169.73/45 Low Jul 31 / 23.6% of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 168.46 Low Jul 1   

The trend set-up in EURJPY is unchanged, it remains bullish and the cross has today traded to a fresh cycle high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 174.86, a Fibonacci projection. On the downside, first support to watch lies at 173.26, the 20-day EMA

• The Dollar is showing in the green against almost all G10s going into the European session, a positive past Weeks for the Greenback overall, albeit more mixed for the past Month and still deep in the red YTD (Year To Date).
• The standout overnight mover is the Aussie, the only Currency that is up following the Australian CPI beat Overnight.
• The AUDUSD chart isn't that interesting at current levels, instead immediate focus should be on the AUDNZD.
• AUDNZD has broken above 1.1300 and is finding further upside demand to trade at is highest level since October 2022, and noted the next resistance circa 1.1348 Yesterday.
• A clear break through the latter opens to 1.1408, then 1.1448 (retrace) and finally the big Psychological 1.1500, although most will be pointing out that 1.1491 is the 2022 high and highest printed level since October 2013.

• RES 4: $76.89 - 2.764 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 3: $74.79- 2.500 proj of the Apr 9 - 23 - May 5 price swing
• RES 2: $73.39 - High Jun 23 and a bull trigger 
• RES 1: $65.43/68.43 - High Sep2 / High Jul 30 and key resistance   
• PRICE: $63.52 @ 07:13 BST Sep 24
• SUP 1: $60.85 - Low Aug 13 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: $57.50 - Low May 30
• SUP 3: $54.89 - Low May 5
• SUP 4: $54.10 - Low Apr 9 and a key support

The trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible reversal and the end of a corrective phase between Aug 13 - Sep 2. Initial resistance to watch is $65.43, the Sep 2 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $68.43, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would open $57.50, the May 30 low.