OIL: Crude Holding Above Close Level Amid Volatile Trading
Jan-08 12:02
Crude is trading just above previous close levels amid volatile trading after a rally to the highest since mid October at $77.89/bbl earlier today.
- The US dollar is firmly bid, with topside momentum gaining amid reports that Trump is considering a national economic emergency declaration to allow for a new tariff program.
- Crude time spreads continue to rally with concern for tighter global supplies due to US sanctions on Iran and Russia while US crude stocks are expected to draw in data due later today.
- Brent MAR 25 up 0.3% at 77.31$/bbl
- WTI FEB 25 up 0.6% at 74.7$/bbl
- WTI-Brent up 0.03$/bbl at -3.43$/bbl
- Brent MAR 25-APR 25 up 0.04$/bbl at 0.69$/bbl
- Brent JUN 25-DEC 25 up 0.06$/bbl at 2.23$/bbl
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US TSYS: PBOC Stimulus Sees Bear Steepening But On Low Volumes
Dec-09 11:53
- Treasuries are mostly lower on the day after selling impetus following a dovish monetary policy tweak from the PBOC, although volumes have been light as US CPI on Wednesday and approaching year-end seems to weigh on activity.
- Cash yields are unchanged (2s) to 2bp higher (30s).
- 2s10s has steepened to 6.3bps (+1.2bp) but remains within last week’s range.
- TYH5 trades at 111-13 (- 01+) off session highs of 111-18+ but has remained within Friday’s range throughout the overnight session, all on very low cumulative volumes of 235k.
- Friday’s post-payrolls high of 111-20+ cleared the 50-day EMA and strengthens a bull cycle. It’s now an initial resistance level after which lies 111-23 (38.2% retrace of Sep 11 – Nov 15 bear leg). To the downside, support at 110-18 (Dec 4 low).
- Data: Wholesale inventories, trade sales Oct F/Oct (1000ET), NY Fed 1-Yr Inflation Nov (1100ET)
- Fedspeak: FOMC media blackout
- Bill issuance: US Tsy $81B 13W & $72B 26W bill auctions (1130ET)
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Threat In Oil Futures Remains Present
Dec-09 11:50
- On the commodity front, Gold is unchanged and continues to trade inside a tight range, for now. The long-term trend condition remains bullish and the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance to watch is $2721.4, the Nov 25 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a bullish short-term development. Key support to monitor is $2536.9, the Nov 14 low.
- In the oil space, a bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and recent weakness reinforces this theme. A continuation down would open $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.04, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $72.41, the Nov 7 high.
EQUITIES: S&P 500 & NASDAQ 100 E-minis Tick Lower As China Probes Nvidia
Dec-09 11:47
Fresh session lows for S&P 500 & NASDAQ 100 e-minis following news that Nvidia is being probed by the Chinese authorities on anti-monopoly grounds.
- The tech giant is now indicated 2.1% lower pre-market.
- E-mini moves are relatively limited at this stage.
- Contracts had already traded away from session highs as optimism surrounding the dovish tweak in the Chinese monetary policy stance proved short-lived.
- Marginal outperformance in the DJIA e-mini since the headlines, given relative sensitivity to tech.
