COMMODITIES: Crude, Gold Pull Back
- Crude has fallen today as the market looks to tomorrow’s Fed decision and Sunday’s OPEC meeting. US/China trade optimism is being weighed against oversupply concerns while the market continues to monitor the impacts of US sanctions on Russian supply.
- WTI Dec 25 is down by 2.2% at $60.0/bbl.
- OPEC meets on Sunday to decide the December output target which could rise again, although there is little spare capacity outside Saudi Arabia. The group is leaning towards another modest output boost, four Reuters sources said.
- For WTI futures, initial support is at $59.64, the Oct 23 low, with key support and the bear trigger at $55.96, the Oct 20 low.
- Initial resistance is at $62.59, the Oct 24 high.
- Meanwhile, spot gold has fallen further today, with price briefly piercing the $3,900/oz level, before paring the move.
- Currently, gold is down by 0.7% at $3,956.
- Spot is now down by almost 10% from last week's all-time highs of $4,381.5, with the easing of US/China trade tensions being cited as a driver of the pullback.
- The move has seen support at the 20-day EMA, at $4,037.0, breached this week, signalling scope for a deeper retracement, towards the 50-day EMA, at $3,842.7.
- Initial resistance is at $4,161.4, the Oct 22 high.
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GBPUSD TECHS: Trades Through Support
- RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance
- RES 3: .3661/3726 High Sep 18 / 17
- RES 2: 1.3537 High Sep 23 1
- RES 1: 1.3427 Low Sep 24
- PRICE: 1.3407 @ 18:45 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 1.3324 Low Sep 25
- SUP 2: 1.3282 Low Aug 6
- SUP 3: 1.3254 Low Aug 4
- SUP 4: 1.3144 38.2% retracement of the Jan 13 - Jul 1 bull cycle
GBPUSD traded lower last Thursday, marking an extension of the current bear cycle that started Sep 17. The move down has resulted in a break of 1.3491, a trendline support drawn from the Aug 1 low. This undermines a recent bullish theme. Note too that 1.3333, the Sep 3 low and a key support, has been pierced, opening 1.3282 next, the Aug 6 low. Initial resistance to watch is 1.3537, the Sep 23 high. A break of it would signal a reversal.
EURUSD TECHS: Breaches Support At The 50- Day EMA
- RES 4: 1.2063 2.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
- RES 3: 1.2000 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.1919/23 High Sep 17 / 2.0 proj of Feb 28 - Mar 18-27 swing
- RES 1: 1.1735/1820 20-day EMA / High Sep 23
- PRICE: 1.1701 @ 18:39 BST Sep 26
- SUP 1: 1.1646 Low Sep 25
- SUP 2: 1.1574 Low Aug 27
- SUP 3: 1.1528 Low Aug 5
- SUP 4: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger.
The trend theme in EURUSD is unchanged, it remains bullish and the recent pullback appears corrective. However, support at 1.1680. the 50-day EMA, has been breached. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 1.1574 initially, the Aug 27 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1.1923, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.1820, the Sep 23 high.
MACRO ANALYSIS: MNI US Macro Weekly: FedSpeak Reaffirms Range Of Cut Views (2/2)
While we heard the monetary policy views of 6 of 12 current FOMC voters this week, there were no real surprises. We go through all of the relevant FOMC communications in full in our Macro Weekly PDF.
- Chair Powell reiterated that policy is not on a preset course; Gov Bowman and Gov Miran reiterated their more-dovish-than-median views; Musalem and Schmid suggested only limited scope for easing; and Goolsbee eyed neutral rates 100-125bp lower but was “uneasy” with too much front-loading.
- Virtually of the week’s FOMC speakers noted labor market risks had begun to surface, but had varying concerns about inflation. To sum up:
2025 FOMC Voters:
- Powell Reiterates "There Is No Risk-Free Path", Policy Not On Preset Course (Sep 23)
- Gov Bowman: Concerned Will Need Faster And Bigger Cuts (Sep 23)
- St Louis's Musalem: Limited Room For Easing, Policy May Be Close To Neutral (Sep 22)
- Chicago's Goolsbee Eyes Neutral Rates 100-125bp Lower (Sep 23), Uneasy With Too Much Cut Frontloading (Sep 25)
- Gov Miran: Appropriate Rates In 2.00-2.50% "Ballpark" (Sep 22)
- KC Fed's Schmid: Slightly Restrictive Policy The "Right Place To Be" (Sep 24)
Non-2025 Voters:
- Atlanta's Bostic Pencils In No More Cuts this Year, But Watching Data (Sep 22), Longer-Run Dot Suggests Limited Impetus To Cut Further (Sep 23)
- SF's Daly: Likely Further Cuts Will Be Needed To Support Labor Market (Sep 24)
- Cleveland's Hammack: Policy Very Mildly Restrictive, Concerns On More Cuts (Sep 22)
- Dallas's Logan: Time To Move From Fed Funds Policy Rate To Tri-Party Repo (Sep 25)
- Barkin: Jobs Shakier, Inflation Less Troubling (Sep 26)
