COMMODITIES: Crude Gains, Gold Pulls Back From Record High
Apr-22 18:54
- Oil prices are higher today after the US imposed sanctions on Iran’s LPG trade, reversing most of yesterday’s losses amid demand concerns due to tariffs and US monetary policy.
- Comments by Trump about his call with Netanyahu and Bessent’s comments on China were late drivers of the rally.
- WTI Jun 25 is up by 1.9% at $64.3/bbl.
- A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the recovery since Apr 9 is - for now - considered corrective. The move higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind.
- Initial firm resistance is seen at $64.49, the Mar 5 low and a recent breakout level.
- Meanwhile, gold has pulled back from a fresh record high reached earlier in the session, with the yellow metal currently 1.4% lower today at $3,377/oz.
- Gold remains 8% higher MTD, amid ongoing haven demand, and it traded briefly at the $3,500 level earlier today, before traders took profit.
- The trend needle in gold continues to point north, with initial resistance at today’s intra-day high, followed by $3,547.9, a Fibonacci projection.
- Elsewhere, copper has rallied by 2.2% today to $489/lb, amid optimism of a de-escalation in US-China trade tensions. However, gains were pared after US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that negotiations with China will be a slog.
- For copper futures, the latest recovery, although strong, appears corrective - for now. However, price pierced $490.27, a Fibonacci retracement today, and a clear break would open $521.30, the Mar 28 high.
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CANADA PM CARNEY TO MEET GOVERNOR GENERAL AT NOON
Mar-23 11:22
- CANADA PM CARNEY TO MEET GOVERNOR GENERAL AT NOON
- CARNEY EXPECTED TO SEEK ELECTION
US TSYS: Available "Extraordinary Measures" Pick Up Slightly From Lows
Mar-21 21:00
Treasury has $163B of "extraordinary measures" remaining for authorities to use to fend off hitting the debt limit as of March 19, per the latest release of Treasury data. That's up from $86B on Mar 17 and a low of $34B on Feb 24.
- That's a little under half of the $377B in measures available to Treasury, with most of the amount remaining ($143B) coming from the so-called "G Fund".
- This headroom is in addition to $416B in cash left in the TGA, at last count.
- We haven't seen any changes recently to "x-dates" by when Treasury will run out of cash until the debt limit is lifted.
- Consensus still centers around late July/early August, but much will depend on April's major mid-month tax take. Treasury wrote to Congress last week that they would be able to provide an update on the x-date in the first half of May, after the conclusion of tax season.
USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Outlook Remains Bullish
Mar-21 21:00
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4345 @ 16:27 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
USDCAD is trading closer to its recent lows. The bull cycle that started Feb 14 remains intact and moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Note that the latest pullback has exposed a near-term key support at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. Clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. The bull trigger is 1.4543, the Mar 4 high.
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