COMMODITIES: Crude Falls Sharply As US-Iran Tensions Ease, Precious Metals Dip

• RES 4: 158.87 High Jan 10 and a key resistance
• RES 3: 158.29 2.618 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 2: 158.00 Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 156.95/157.89 High Dec 9 / High Nov 20 and bull trigger 
• PRICE: 154.82 @ 16:23 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 154.40 Low Dec 16
• SUP 2: 154.00 50-day EMA and a key support area  
• SUP 3: 152.82 Low Nov 7 
• SUP 4: 151.54 Low Oct 29 

Despite the latest pullback, the trend condition in USDJPY is bullish. The move down between Nov 20 - Dec 5 appears to have been a correction and the recovery from the Dec 5 low highlights the end of the corrective phase. However, support at 154.00, the 50-day EMA, remains exposed. A clear breach of this average would undermine the bull theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would open 158.00. 

EGB yields dipped Tuesday amid mixed global labor market and activity data, but Gilts weakened.

• Slightly weaker-than-expected Eurozone December flash PMIs had little impact on core EGBs. In the UK however Gilts were kept on the back foot amid a firm PMI print and labour market data that showed higher-than-expected earnings growth.
• The delayed US nonfarm payrolls report was initially seen as weak due to a sizeable unemployment rate rise, but the move fully reversed in part due to strong US retail sales alongside, and saw Gilts and Bunds yields hit session highs.
• Yields were content to come off of the lows into the cash close, ahead of Wednesday's UK CPI release and Thursday's ECB / BoE decisions.
• On the day, the German curve bull steepened slightly, with the UK's bear steepening. Periphery/semi-core EGB spreads fell modestly.
• Aside from UK CPI (MNI's preview here), German IFO and Eurozone final November inflation data feature Wednesday.

Closing Yields / 10-Yr EGB Spreads To Germany

• Germany: The 2-Yr yield is down 1.6bps at 2.134%, 5-Yr is down 1.7bps at 2.452%, 10-Yr is down 0.8bps at 2.845%, and 30-Yr is down 0.6bps at 3.466%.
• UK: The 2-Yr yield is up 1.2bps at 3.766%, 5-Yr is up 1.3bps at 3.96%, 10-Yr is up 2.2bps at 4.518%, and 30-Yr is up 1.9bps at 5.258%.
• Spanish bond spread down 1.2bps at 43.6bps  / French OAT down 0.4bps at 70.5bps  

• RES 4: 0.8865 High Nov 14 and a bull trigger   
• RES 3: 0.8840 High Nov 20
• RES 2: 0.8818 High Nov 26
• RES 1: 0.8802 High Dec 2 and a key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 0.8796 @ 16:22 GMT Dec 16
• SUP 1: 0.8755/21 50-day EMA / Low Dec 9
• SUP 2: 0.8706 76.4% retracement of the Oct 8 - Nov 14 bull leg
• SUP 3: 0.8670 Low Oct 21   
• SUP 4: 0.8656 Low Oct 8 and a key support  

The current upleg in EURGBP highlights a possible reversal and the end of the corrective phase between Nov 14 - Dec 9. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.8721, the Dec 9 low. A break of this level would signal scope for a deeper retracement, towards 0.8706, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at 0.8802, the Dec 2 high. Clearance of this hurdle would be a bullish development.