COMMODITIES: Crude Falls, Precious Metals Lose Ground Post Fed
Sep-17 18:52
- WTI has fallen today following a large crude stock draw, with a further decline following the Fed’s announcement of a 25bp cut to rates.
- However, crude is still holding onto most of the week’s gains, supported by Russian supply risks amid Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure and potential sanctions.
- WTI Oct 25 is down by 0.8% at $64.0/bbl.
- The Fed signalled two more cuts this year, with the median projection of fed funds rate at end-2025 at 3.6%.
- The trend condition in WTI futures remains bearish, with sights on initial resistance at $61.29, the Aug 13 low and the bear trigger, followed by $57.71, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high.
- Meanwhile, spot gold has fallen during Fed Chair Powell’s press conference, after some short-lived volatility around the Fed decision, which saw the yellow metal briefly reach a fresh record high at $3,707.6/oz.
- The yellow metal is currently down by 1.0% $3,652/oz.
- Gold remains in a clear bull cycle, with the next objective at $3,705.2, a Fibonacci projection, which was briefly pierced earlier. On the downside, initial firm support lies at $3,558.8, the 20-day EMA.
- Elsewhere, silver has notably underperformed today, with the precious metal currently down by 3.0% at $41.3/oz and extending losses post the Fed decision.
- Trend signals in silver remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Sights are on $42.974 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is $40.721, the 20-day EMA.
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Historical bullets
STIR FUTURES: BLOCK: Red Sep'26 SOFR Sale
Aug-18 18:43
-10,000 SFRU6 96.79, post time bid at 1438:39ET
SOFR OPTIONS: BLOCK/Screen: Large Oct'25 SOFR Call Buy
Aug-18 18:31
- +145,000 (95k Block) SFRU5 96.50 calls, 3.0-3.25 - total volume over 159,100 in the strike in late Monday trade
USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Outlook
Aug-18 18:30
- RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 3: 151.21 High Mar 28
- RES 2: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 148.52 High Aug 12
- PRICE: 147.82 @ 16:40 BST Aug 18
- SUP 1: 146.21 Low Aug 14
- SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
- SUP 3: 145.51 100-dma
- SUP 4: 145.40 50% retracement Apr - Aug Upleg
A bearish threat in USDJPY remains present and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Sights are on support at 145.86, the Jul 24 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and strengthen the bearish engulfing signal from Aug 1. This would open 144.58, a trendline support drawn from the Apr 22 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is at 148.52, the Aug 12 high. A breach of this level would be viewed as a S/T bull signal.
