COMMODITIES: Crude Falls, Gold Edges Lower Amid Dollar Relief Rally
- WTI has fallen today after Bloomberg reported that the EC may be more focused on targeting Russian LNG, rather than oil, in its latest sanctions package.
- The EC is considering the phasing out of all Russian LNG imports earlier than the end of 2027, which was the EU’s initial plan. Its focus is turning to Russian LNG, given that many EU countries are reluctant to hit India and China with tariffs for purchases of Russian oil.
- WTI Oct 25 is down by 0.8% at $63.5/bbl.
- Meanwhile, the market is weighing the pledged rise in OPEC+ output against the bloc’s spare capacity to follow through on production hikes, coupled with Chinese storage buying.
- The trend condition in WTI futures is still bearish, with initial support at $61.29, the Aug 13 low and the bear trigger, followed by $57.71, the May 30 low. Initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high.
- Elsewhere, spot gold has fallen by 0.5% to $3,642/oz, as a relief rally in the dollar, bolstered by better-than-expected US data, weighed on the yellow metal.
- Despite the move, the trend structure for gold remains bullish and short-term weakness is for now, considered corrective.
- Another all-time high, earlier this week, confirmed a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3,705.2, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at $3,566.4, the 20-day EMA.
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USDJPY TECHS: Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 3: 151.21 High Mar 28
- RES 2: 150.92 High Aug 1 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 148.52 High Aug 12
- PRICE: 147.73 @ 16:30 BST Aug 19
- SUP 1: 146.21 Low Aug 14
- SUP 2: 145.86 Low Jul 24
- SUP 3: 145.51 100-dma
- SUP 4: 145.40 50% retracement Apr - Aug Upleg
USDJPY is in consolidation mode. A bearish threat remains present and the pair is trading closer to its recent lows. Sights are on support at 145.86, the Jul 24 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and strengthen the bearish engulfing signal from Aug 1. This would open 144.63, a trendline drawn from the Apr 22 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is 148.52, the Aug 12 high. A breach of it would be viewed as a S/T bull signal.
US: CORRECTION FED Reverse Repo Operation
RRP usage retreats to $22.344B this afternoon (lowest since April 5, 2021) from $38.240B yesterday, total number of counterparties at 29.
EURGBP TECHS: Has Breached Support
- RES 4: 0.8769 High Jul 28
- RES 3: 0.8744 High Aug 7
- RES 2: 0.8682 High Aug 8
- RES 1: 0.8652 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.8648 @ 15:57 BST Aug 19
- SUP 1: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
- SUP 2: 0.8562 50.0% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
- SUP 3: 0.8540 Low Jun 30
- SUP 4: 0.8514 61.8% retracement May 29 - Jul 28 upleg
Recent weakness in EURGBP resulted in a breach of key support at 0.8611, the Jul 31 low, and pierced the 50-day EMA, at 0.8616. A continuation lower would strengthen a bearish threat and highlight a stronger reversal of the uptrend between May 29 and Jul 28. This would open 0.8562, a Fibonacci retracement point. For bulls, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 0.8769, the Jul 28 high.
