COMMODITIES: Crude Falls, Gold, Copper Pull Back
- Oil prices have lost ground in US hours, as Mideast tensions have waned and headlines suggest limited optimism for US-China trade war progress.
- WTI June 25 is down by 1.7% at $58.1/bbl.
- Trump said on Tuesday the bombing of Yemen will stop as a ceasefire with the Houthis is brokered via Oman, in a move he said will stop attacks on ships.
- A medium-term bearish trend in WTI futures remains intact with attention on $54.67, the Apr 9 low and a bear trigger. Key resistance to watch is $63.88, the 50-day EMA.
- Meanwhile, spot gold has fallen by 1.3% to $3,388/oz.
- Analysts at Saxo Bank said that having surged ahead of the Chinese market reopening, a setback was expected. They add that while US-China trade talks may ease demand in the short term, a deal may still be difficult to strike.
- For gold, a continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at $3,500.1, the Apr 22 high. Key short-term support has been defined at $3,202.0, the May 1 low.
- Elsewhere, copper has pulled back by 2.8% to $465/lb.
- Despite the move, Goldman Sachs says that a de-escalation in trade tensions and resilient Chinese copper demand will likely continue to support copper ahead.
- Key short-term resistance for copper has been defined at $498.25, the Apr 23 high. A continuation of weakness would expose $436.00, the Apr 10 low.
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TARIFFS: Trump-Netanyahu Joint Press Conference Underway Shortly
US President Donald Trump is shortly due to hold a joint press conference with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House. LIVESTREAM. Today's visit is Netanyahu's second since Trump took office in January.
- Haaretz speculates that the meeting is designed to give Trump a political win amid the fallout from his tariffs: "The planned meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Monday is unusual, not only because it was arranged last minute, but mainly due to the reversal of circumstances. It isn't Netanyahu who needs Trump this time, but rather Trump who needs Netanyahu."
- The New York Times notes: "Looming over the meeting this week is a point of tension: Mr. Trump’s sweeping tariffs, which did not spare Israel. Mr. Netanyahu’s office said the two men plan to discuss the tariff issue, the war in Gaza, Israel-Turkey relations, Iran and the International Criminal Court."
- Netanyahu said on the tariffs: “I can tell you that I am the first international leader, the first foreign leader, who will meet with President Trump on the issue, which is so important to the Israeli economy. There is a long line of leaders who want this regarding their economies. I think that it reflects the special personal link, as well as the special ties between the U.S. and Israel.”
USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 151.30 High Mar 3
- RES 3: 150.43/151.21 50-day EMA / High Mar 28 and reversal trigger
- RES 2: 149.12 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 148.18 Low Mar 20
- PRICE: 147.73 @ 16:50 BST Apr 7
- SUP 1: 144.56 Low Apr 4
- SUP 2: 144.13 76.4% retracement of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg
- SUP 3: 143.43 Low Oct 2 ‘24
- SUP 4: 142.95 1.00 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
USDJPY maintains a softer tone following last week’s sharp sell-off and is trading just ahead of its recent lows. A resumption of the downtrend and a break of Friday’s 144.56 low would signal scope for an extension towards 144.13, a Fibonacci retracement point. Initial firm resistance to watch is 149.12, the 20-day EMA. Short-term gains would - for now - be considered corrective.
EURGBP TECHS: Clears Key Resistance
- RES 4: 0.8628 1.500 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 3: 0.8604 1.382 proj of the Mar 3 - 11 - 28 price swing
- RES 2: 0.8593 High Aug 14 ‘24
- RES 1: 0.8580 High Apr 7
- PRICE: 0.8571 @ 16:49 BST Apr 7
- SUP 1: 0.8432/0.8380 Low Apr 4 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key near-term support
- SUP 3: 0.8299 Low Mar 5
- SUP 4: 0.8251 Low Mar 4
EURGBP maintains a bullish tone. The latest rally has resulted in a break of key resistance at 0.8474, the Jan 20 high. Clearance of this hurdle highlights an important technical breach and strengthens a bullish condition. Sights are 0.8593 next, the Aug 14 ‘24 high. On the downside, firm support lies at 0.8380, the 20-day EMA. The contract is overbought, a pullback would allow this condition to unwind.
