COMMODITIES: Crude Falls Amid Oversupply Concerns, Precious Metals Rally
- Crude has fallen sharply today amid oversupply concerns after OPEC flipped its Q3 view to a surplus.
- WTI Dec 25 is down by 4.3% at $58.4/bbl.
- The November OPEC Monthly Oil Market report showed a switch from a deficit to a surplus of 500kb/d in Q3 as US production exceeded expectations.
- Excess oil supply driven by increased OPEC and non-OPEC output also remains in focus, while uncertainty remains over the impact of the latest sanctions on Russia.
- With today’s move, price has fallen below initial support at $58.83, the Nov 6 low, narrowing the gap to key support and the bear trigger at $55.96, the Oct 20 low.
- Meanwhile, spot gold has risen by a further 1.7% to $4,197/oz on Wednesday, taking it to its highest level since Oct 21.
- The move comes ahead of a US House vote to end the government shutdown this evening. A final vote is expected at around 1900ET(0000GMT).
- Today’s rally in gold has seen price rise above initial resistance at $4,161.4, the Oct 22 high. A stronger recovery would refocus attention on $4,381.5, the Oct 20 high and bull trigger.
- Elsewhere, silver has also jumped by 4.4% to $53.5/oz, taking the precious metal to its highest since Oct 17, when it reached an all-time high of $54.48.
- Trend signals in silver remain bullish and a clearance of this record high would open $55.444, a Fibonacci projection point.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Threat
- RES 4: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17 and a bull trigger
- RES 2: 0.6629 High Sep 30 & Oct 01 and key short-term resistance
- RES 1: 0.6560 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6513 @ 08:11 BST Oct 13
- SUP 1: 0.6473 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 0.6463 Low Aug 27
- SUP 3: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
A sharp sell-off in AUDUSD on Friday resulted in a break of 0.6521, the Sep 26 low, and 0.6484, the 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg. This undermines the recent bullish theme and instead signals scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards key support at 0.6415, the Aug 21 and 22 low. Initial resistance to watch is 0.6560, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term resistance has been defined at 0.6629, the Sep 30 and Oct 1 high.
US TSYS: Tsys Rebound Late, 2s-10s Leading on Subdued Holiday Trade
- Treasury look to settle mixed, bonds weaker on very light volumes (TYZ5 670k) due to the Columbus Day holiday. The Dec'25 10Y contract currently trades at 113-05.5 (+1) - rebounding late with no obvious headline of Block-driven support.
- Normal Globex trade hours, stocks open - recovering approximately half of Friday's rout: the DJIA trades up 575.86 points (1.27%) at 46,057.31, S&P E-Minis up 98 points (1.49%) at 6,693, Nasdaq up 467.7 points (2.1%) at 22,674.98.
- No data, but Philly Fed Pres Anna Paulson (non-2025 FOMC voter, votes in 2026) said in a speech Monday that with rates "modestly restrictive now", she sees easing through year-end in line with the September SEP median - in other words, two more cuts by year-end. That's in line with MNI's assumption of her view.
- More Fed speakers tomorrow with focus on Chairman Powell's economic outlook keynote address at the NABE Annual Meeting at 1220ET.
EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: 180.00 Psychological round number
- RES 3: 179.81 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low
- RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
- RES 1: 177.94 High Oct 10 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 176.13 @ 15:54 BST Oct 13
- SUP 1: 175.67 Low Oct 10
- SUP 2: 174.73 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 173.24 High Oct 3 and a gap low on the daily chart
- SUP 4: 172.27 Low Oct 2 and a key medium-term support
The trend set-up in EURJPY is bullish despite the slippage of last week’s high - a corrective pullback. Key short-term support lies at 172.27, the Oct 2 low. First support to watch lies at 174.73, the 20-day EMA. Last week’s fresh cycle highs strengthen bullish conditions. The cross has cleared resistance at 175.13, the Sep 29 high, to confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. A resumption of gains would open the 178.94, a Fibonacci projection.
