OIL: Crude Facing Bear Triggers After Reports Show Market Surplus

Yen underperformed through Monday trade, as risk sentiment stabilized from Friday's sharp sell-off. Global equities were higher led by US markets, while USD/JPY highs were at 152.45. We currently track near 152.20/25 (yen lost 0.72% Monday, the worst performed in the G10 space). Focus for USD/JPY will be a move above 152.64, which is needed to erase the sell-off triggered by Trump's threats to raise tariffs on China on Friday.

• From a technical standpoint, the underlying bullish trend condition in the pair remains intact and Friday’s pullback is for now, considered corrective. Further north, a break of Friday’s 153.27 high, would resume the uptrend and open 154.39, a Fibonacci retracement point. Important support on the downside lies at 149.45, the 20-day EMA.
• Japan markets return today. Politics remains a focus point, with opposition parties set to meet today to discuss the collapse of the governing coalition last week. These meetings could help determine whether Takaichi goes ahead with a minority government, or looks to bring forward elections. Her odds of becoming the next PM have slid to 77, per Polymarket (down from post LDP leadership election highs near 100).
• Locally on the data front Sep money stock figures, not typically a market mover.
• In the option expiry space, note the following for NY cut later today: Y151.50($691mln), Y152.00($751mln). 

• RES 3: 97.796 - 1.618 proj of the Sep 3 - 12 - 15 price swing
• RES 2: 96.685 - 1.000 proj of the Sep 3 - 12 - 15 price swing 
• RES 1: 96.615 - High Sep 12  
• PRICE: 96.480 @ 15:26 BST Oct 13
• SUP 1: 96.280 - Low May 15 (cont.)  
• SUP 2: 95.900 - Low Jan 14 (cont.)
• SUP 3: 95.760 - Low 14 Nov ‘24

Aussie 3-yr futures surged on the resumption of trade, returning focus higher after the break of support last week. While prices appear more stable, the recent break of Sep 3 low of 96.435 negates the recent short-term bullish theme. This breach signals scope for an extension towards 96.280, the May 15 low on the continuation chart. The short-term resistance to watch is 96.615, the Sep 12 high. Clearance of this level is required to reinstate a bullish theme.  

• Bank of Korea to Sell KRW2.6tn 2-Year Bonds
• Hong Kong to Sell HK$19 Bn 182-Day Bills
• Hong Kong to Sell HK$68.346 Bn 91-Day Bills
• Bank of Thailand to Sell THB65 Bn  of 91-Days Bills
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 96D SVBI Bills
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 365D SVBI Bills
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 32D SVBI Bills
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 273D SVBI Bills
• Bank Indonesia to Sell 182D SVBI Bills
• Malaysia to Sell MYR5 Bn 2030 Bonds
• China to Sell CNY40bn 2045 Bonds
• MAS to Sell S$14.6 Bn 28-Day Bills
• MAS to Sell S$1.8 Bn 252-Day Bills
• MAS to Sell S$22.1 Bn 84-Day Bills
• Taiwan to Sell NT$30 Bn 10-Year Bonds
• Indonesia To Sell 2039 Sukuk Bonds (PBS034)
• Indonesia To Sell 2028 Sukuk Bonds (PBS030)
• Indonesia To Sell 2027 Sukuk Bonds (PBS003)
• Indonesia To Sell 2049 Sukuk Bonds (PBS038)
• Indonesia To Sell 2041 Sukuk Bonds (PBS039)
• Indonesia To Sell 25D Sukuk Bills (SPNS10112025)
• Indonesia To Sell 172D Sukuk Bills (SPNS06042026)
• Indonesia To Sell 270D Sukuk Bills (SPNS13072026)