COMMODITIES: Crude Extends Losses Amid Russia/Ukraine Optimism, Copper Rebounds
Feb-12 19:42
- Crude has extended losses today after Presidents Trump and Putin appeared to agree to begin talks over ending the Ukraine war, a bearish move for oil markets. This added to existing pressure from an above-expectation US stock build.
- WTI Mar 25 is down by 2.7% at $71.4/bbl.
- US crude inventories rose 4.07mbbl, more than expected but less than suggested in API data, remaining below the five-year seasonal average. API data yesterday showed a large crude stock build of 9mbbl, according to Bloomberg.
- The move lower in WTI futures narrows the gap to key short-term support and the bear trigger at $70.43, the Feb 6 low. Below here, next support is at $68.05, the Dec 20 ’24 low.
- Meanwhile, spot gold has edged down by 0.1% to $2,895/oz, leaving the yellow metal almost $50 below yesterday’s record high.
- A bull cycle in gold remains in play, with sights on $2,962.2, a Fibonacci projection.
- Copper has rebounded today, with price up by 2.1% at $469/lb, unwinding yesterday’s losses and taking the red metal back to 4½-month highs.
- Copper futures remain in a bull cycle and the most recent gains have highlighted an acceleration of the uptrend.
- Price is through $461.24, 76.4% of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Jan 2 bear leg, with sights on $480.00, the Sep 30 high and bull trigger.
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COMMODITIES: Crude Extends Gains Amid Russia Sanctions, Precious Metals Decline
Jan-13 19:40
- Crude has extended gains from last week, with WTI at its highest level since last summer, supported by fresh sanctions from the US administration on Russia.
- WTI Feb 25 is up by 2.9% at $78.8/bbl.
- Crude curve backwardation has strengthened significantly after the announcement of the latest US sanctions on Russia risks global supplies.
- New US sanctions against Russia will be retaliated against, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry.
- The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish and recent gains have resulted in a breach of key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high.
- Clearance of this hurdle strengthens a bull theme and opens $79.59, the Jul 5 ‘24 high, followed by $80.14, the Apr 12 ’24 high and a key medium-term resistance.
- Meanwhile, spot gold has fallen by 1.1% to $2,660/oz, the yellow metal’s first decline in five sessions.
- Last week’s gains in gold appear corrective for now, although a continuation higher would open $2,726.2, the Dec 12 high. On the downside, initial support is at $2,642.7, the 50-day EMA, followed by $2,583.6, the Dec 19 low.
- Silver is underperforming today, with the precious metal down by 2.7% to $29.6/oz.
- A bear cycle in silver that started Oct 23 remains in play for now, with initial support seen at $28.748, the Dec 19 low, followed by $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Trend Needle Points South
Jan-13 19:36
- RES 4: 111-20+ High 6 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 2: 109-28 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 108-26/109-06 20-day EMA / High Dec 31
- PRICE: 107-10+ @ 19:25 GMT Jan 13
- SUP 1: 107-06 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 107-04 Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 3: 107-00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 106-11 2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
The trend condition in Treasury futures is unchanged and remains bearish. Today’s bearish start to the week, has once again, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 107-04 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key short-term resistance is seen at 108-26, the 20-day EMA.
PIPELINE: Corporate Issuance Roundup: $13.85B to Price Monday
Jan-13 19:14
$13.85B to price Monday, $3B KFW, $2B CADES and others rolled to Tuesday
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/13 $2.5B #Standard Chartered $1B 4NC3 +105, $500M 4NC3 SOFR+124, $1B 11NC10 +143
- 01/13 $2B #Deere $1.25B 10Y +68, $750M 30Y +75
- 01/13 $1.75B #Rabobank $700M 3Y +40, $300M 3Y SOFR+60, $750M 8NC7 +100
- 01/13 $1.5B #CBA 5Y SOFR+69
- 01/13 $1.2B #Eastern Energy Gas $700M 10Y +105, $500M 30Y +125
- 01/13 $1B #Micron 10Y +102
- 01/13 $1B *EBRD 5.5Y SOFR+42
- 01/13 $1B #Plains All American 10Y +120
- 01/13 $650M Blue Owl Tech Fin 3Y +185
- 01/13 $500M #Apollo Debt Solutions 7Y +185
- 01/13 $750M #Ares Strategic 7Y +175
- 01/13 $Benchmark KHFC 5Y +95a, 5Y SOFR
- May price Tuesday:
- 01/13 $3B KFW +5Y +43a
- 01/14 $2B CADES 5Y SOFR+70a
- 01/13 $Benchmark British Colombia 3Y SOFR+46a
- 01/14 $Benchmark BNG Bank 5Y SOFR+50a
- 01/14 $Benchmark CAF 5Y SOFR+90a
- 01/14 $Benchmark IFC 3Y SOFR+33a
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