COMMODITIES: Crude Extends Gains, Gold Rises As Geopolitical Tensions Escalate

• RES 4: 152.31 High Feb 19 
• RES 3: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg 
• RES 2: 151.21 High Mar 28 
• RES 1: 150.92 High Aug 1 
• PRICE: 148.01 @ 15:30 BST Aug 11
• SUP 1: 146.70 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: 146.64 1.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 146.62 Low Aug 5
• SUP 4: 145.86 Low Jul 24  

USDJPY consolidated for much of last week, holding the bulk of the NFP losses. Price has bounced, but recoveries are shallow at this stage. This has allowed a previously overbought condition to unwind, and keeps the downside argument in focus. The recent break and close below 147.53, the 20-day EMA, is a concern. A clear break of this support zone would undermine the recent bull theme. A break of last week’s 150.92 high would resume the uptrend.     

• Developments in travel-related services are likely to again play a role in determining the market reaction to “supercore” inflation (core services ex OER & primary rents). Supercore inflation is on balance seen firming slightly to a ‘high’ 0.2% after 0.21% M/M in June. It has been a particularly volatile measure so far this year although it has averaged only a little above a rate consistent with 2% annualized inflation at 0.20% M/M in the year to date.
• As detailed in the MNI CPI Preview (see in full here), OER inflation is seen at a similar pace to its past two months whilst primary rents could accelerate a touch after two softer months. The weighted average of the two has been at or below its average pace from 2019 (0.28% M/M) in four of the past eight months to June (averaging 0.31% M/M) and analyst expectations would see a continuation of this at 0.28% M/M. Some leading indicators point to further moderation ahead although we still caution the fact that the BLS’ quarterly New Tenants’ Rent series tends to be revised higher. 

Bloomberg reports, citing "two administration officials", that current FOMC members Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman, Vice Chair Jefferson, and Dallas Fed's Logan are in the running to succeed current Fed Chair Powell. 

• If this is correct, the reported list has continued to grow: Bloomberg corroborates a few names ("Kevin Hassett, a close economic adviser to Trump, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, economist Marc Sumerlin and former Fed officials Kevin Warsh and James Bullard") reported by the WSJ last week and - in the case of the "Kevins" - by President Trump himself.
• Bloomberg reports that Treasury Secretary Bessent will interview candidates in the coming weeks, and Trump is set to announce Powell's successor "this fall".
• Gov Bowman is not a surprise here given her elevation to Vice Chair for Supervision this year by the White House as well as her currently dovish stance on rate policy chiming with the administration's.
• Jefferson's a bit of a surprise name in the broader context given he's a Biden appointee and has hewed pretty closely to Powell's stance on rates, which has proven unwelcome in the White House.
• That said, Logan may be the most hawkish on rates of any of the candidates yet named (note also that Dallas has an FOMC vote in 2026).