COMMODITIES: Crude Declines As Near-Term Tariff Fears Ease, Copper Falls Further
- Crude has lost ground today amid news that Trump will stop short of imposing tariffs immediately upon taking office, coupled with the implementation of the Gaza ceasefire have added pressure.
- WTI Feb 25 fell by 1.7% to $76.6/bbl.
- In his inauguration address, President Trump said that the US will fill its strategic reserves again and export American energy all over the world.
- The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish, with attention on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the bullish theme and open $80.63, a Fibonacci projection.
- On the downside, a further decline would expose the 20-day EMA, at $74.80, a key short-term support.
- Meanwhile, spot gold has edged up by 0.2% to $2,709/oz, with the yellow metal trading in a tight range through much of the session.
- Gold continues to hold on to its recent gains and scope is seen for a continuation higher near-term. Eyes remain on $2,726.2, the Dec 12 high and an important resistance.
- On the downside, initial support is at $2,653.4, the 50-day EMA.
- In contrast, copper has fallen by 1.2% to $432/lb today, leaving the red metal 3.5% below Friday’s high.
- Copper futures remain in a bull cycle, despite the latest pullback. Price has traded through the 50-day EMA and last week’s gains resulted in a move through key short-term resistance at $433.50, the Dec 12 high, opening $452.85, the Nov 5 ‘24 high.
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TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU SAYS `WE HAVE A LOT OF WORK TO DO'
- TRUDEAU WANTS GOVT TO PREPARE FOR NEW US ADMINISTRATION
- TRUDEAU DOESN'T ADDRESS QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS LEADERSHIP
USDCAD TECHS: A Pullback Would Be Considered Corrective
- RES 4: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 3: 1.4537 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
- RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19
- PRICE: 1.4356 @ 16:56 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 1.4301 Low Dec 18
- SUP 2: 1.4174/4014 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 3: 1.3928 Low Nov 25 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3822 Low Nov 6
USDCAD bulls remain in the driver’s seat. While price faded into the Thursday close, the recent breach of 1.4178, the Nov 26 high, confirmed a resumption of the uptrend and this maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The latest rally opens 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. Initial firm support to watch lies at 1.4174, the 20-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.
AUDUSD TECHS: Bearish Trend Structure
- RES 4: 0.6550 High Nov 25
- RES 3: 0.6501 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 1: 0.6337/6396 Low Dec 11 / 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 0.6263 @ 16:55 GMT Dec 20
- SUP 1: 0.6199 Low Dec 19
- SUP 3: 0.6158 1.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
The trend needle in AUDUSD continues to point south and this week’s fresh cycle lows and Wednesday’s sell-off, reinforce a bear theme. The move down maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The break lower opens 0.6158 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6396, the 20-day EMA.
