OIL: Crude Continues Trending Higher Ahead Of EIA Data & Fedspeak

Oil prices continued trending higher during today’s APAC session with little news to give them direction. US industry-based data showed product drawdowns and the market continues to monitor strikes on Russian energy infrastructure which are impacting refining rates. For now the US EIA’s forecast of higher non-OPEC output and lower prices has been looked through but the IEA’s report is not until 14 October. 

• WTI is up 0.9% to $62.28/bbl after rising to $62.36 and Brent is 0.8% higher at $65.95/bbl following a peak of $66.04. Both benchmarks are up around 2.2% since the weekend’s cautious OPEC decision.
• Official EIA oil data will still be released Wednesday as the agency is continuing to publish for now despite the US government shutdown. Bloomberg reported mixed industry-based data with oil inventories building but falling at key hub Cushing last week, according to people familiar with the API data. The reported product drawdown has likely provided support to prices today ahead of the EIA data.
• A soft outlook was reflected in the EIA’s October report as it is forecasting global oil inventories to build through next year pushing Brent down to $52/bbl from $62 in Q4 2025. Global output rises across its forecast horizon driven by non-OPEC. It doesn’t believe OPEC will be able to achieve its higher production targets helping to support prices.
• Later the Fed’s Musalem, Barr, Goolsbee, Kashkari and the ECB’s Lagarde, Elderson, Buch, Tuominen and BoE’s Pill speak. The September FOMC meeting minutes will also be published.