OIL: Crude Continues August Decline, Doubts US Can Restrict Russian Oil

The NZD/USD had a range Friday night of 0.6050 - 0.6079, Asia is trading around 0.6055. The NZD/USD drifted lower for most of the session as stocks pared back some of its recent gains as the market eyes the tariff deadline approaching this week. Look for more consolidation again in the NZD/USD as the pair continues to build a base from which to move higher. The risk to this is clearly around President Trump escalating trade tensions this week, which could make it a choppy week.

• (Bloomberg) -- Finance Minister Nicola Willis is seeking advice on how much tax local banks are paying, the NZ Herald reports, citing an interview. Says work to enhance banking competition is wide-ranging and as part of this, she has sought advice on whether the major banks are paying their fair share of tax
• “I’ve been interested in how New Zealand’s bank tax regime compares with Australia and elsewhere, particularly in light of the significant profits Australian banks make from Kiwi customers”
• A huge bounce from sub 0.5900 and the NZD has now established a foothold above 0.6000, with the USD breaking lower the NZD/USD looks to be building for a potential break higher of its own.  A clear break of 0.6100 could provide the momentum to begin a larger move higher, initially targeting the 0.6400/0.6500 area. The tariff deadline this week does add some risk to this view.
• First support is towards 0.6000 then more importantly the 0.5850/0.5900 area.
• Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: none. Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6075(NZD519m July 9), 0.6000(NZD407m July10).
• Data/Event : RBNZ - Wednesday

Fig 1: NZD/USD Spot Daily Chart

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg Finance L.P

• Philippines To Sell PHP 7.0Bln 91D Bills (PH0000059370)
• Philippines To Sell PHP 8.5Bln 182D Bills (PH0000059784)
• Philippines To Sell PHP 9.5Bln 364D Bills (PH0000060667)

source: Bloomberg Finance LP / MNI