NORWAY: Credit Growth Continues To Gradually Tick Higher, But Rate Cuts Needed
Norwegian general public credit growth rose a tenth to 3.6% Y/Y in January. While on a gradually increasing trend, high policy rates have restricted lending and by extension mainland economic growth. Norges Bank are widely expected to deliver its first rate cut of the cycle in March.
- Households, who account for 60% of total general public debt, saw credit growth rise 3.9% Y/Y (vs 3.8% prior). Statistics Norway note that easier housing regulations (equity requirement lowered to 10% from 15%) is one factor driving household lending growth.
- Lending to non-financial corporations rose 1.9% Y/Y, up from 1.4% in December but still below November’s 2.0%. The 2024 average was 2.2% Y/Y.
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EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (H5) Monitoring Support
- RES 4: 6200.00 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance
- RES 2: 6163.75 High Dec 16
- RES 1: 6162.28 High Jan 24
- PRICE: 6038.50 @ 07:25 GMT Jan 27
- SUP 1: 6008.86/5961.75 50-day EMA / Low Jan 16
- SUP 2: 5943.94 61.8% retracement of the Jan 13 - 24 bull leg
- SUP 3: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
- SUP 4: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a key support
The S&P E-Minis contract is starting the week on a bearish note, extending the pullback from Friday’s high. Key short-term support to watch lies at 5961.75, the Jan 16 low. For now, the move down appears corrective, however, a breach of 5961.75 would strengthen a bearish threat and signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 5943.94, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance is unchanged at 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.
UK DMO UPDATE: Gilt Tender Scheduling
The DMO has announced it "seeks views on the scheduling of a gilt tender on Thursday 30 January 2025 for a conventional gilt with a maturity of under five years".
- "The DMO has identified the morning of Thursday 30 January 2025 as a possible date for a gilt tender of a conventional gilt with a maturity of under five years and is seeking wider feedback from all primary dealer firms (GEMMs) and other interested parties as to the demand for such an operation, the specific choice of maturity, nominal size and timing."
- "Feedback is requested by 3.30pm today, Monday 27 January 2025, to <giltdealing@dmo.gov.uk> or <policy@dmo.gov.uk>. In determining whether to schedule any such operation, and the appropriate size if applicable, the DMO will also take into account other external factors."
- "A further announcement will be made at 7.30am on Tuesday 28 January 2025."
USD: In the Green against most of the Majors
- The Risk Off tone seems to have been supportive of the Dollar overnight and into the early European session, although Zooming out and looking at the shorter bigger picture, the Dollar is more mixed for this past Week or even Month.
- While the Pound is the standout Currency within G10s against the Greenback, up 0.97% for the past Week, looking at the 1 Month period it is still down 1.03%.
- For Today, the NOK, NZD and AUD are the worst early performers in that order.
- While the USDNOK has now jumped close to 10 big figures from Friday's low, that low print was its lowest in over a Month, since 17th Dec.
- Resistance in the USDNOK is still towards 11.3134 initially.
