TURKEY: Credit Access a Key Focus; Rent Prices Ripping Higher
- A presidential decree issued this week has broadened the definition of an SME - effectively doubling the annual sales revenue ceiling to TRY 1bln to account for inflation. As a result, banks have been urged by industry to reconsider the eligibility of firms for SME schemes, including interest rate policies and access to credit facilities, according to Ekonomi.
- Elsewhere in the paper, columnist Emre Alpan Inan writes that credit access will not improve simply due to falling policy rates because there has been no improvement in the country's overall risk perception. Dynamics around withholding taxes are also effectively acting as an interest rate increase.
- Housing costs remain acutely high, with Dunya analysing inflation figures to show that rents are rising at a pace of 79% per year - with imbalances in supply/demand, price hikes inbetween lease agreements, the use of property for investment and a decline in property purchasing power all fuelling an outsized acceleration in rental prices across the country.
- The CBRT have confirmed that governor Karahan is to present the bank's inflation report next week on August 14th at 1030 local time (0830BST/0330ET). The schedule is quiet today, with data picking up next week with the release of industrial production, current account balance and retail sales data.
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BONDS: ING See Ongoing Structural Pressure
While bonds have ticked away from yesterday’s lows, ING find it “difficult to find factors that would bring a halt to the strong upward momentum in 30-Year global rates from a structural perspective. The fiscal concerns are broad-based, with Japan, the U.S. and UK worrying investors. Then we have quantitative tightening continuing in the background, adding interest rate risk to absorb for the market. More niche stories like the Dutch pension reforms are not helping either and reduce demand for longer-dated swaps and bonds”.
BUNDS: Block trade
Bund block trade suggest seller:
- RXU5 4.2k at 129.80.
SILVER TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: $39.026 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 3: $38.246 - 1.236 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 2: $38.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $37.317 - High Jun 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $36.594 @ 08:14 BST Jul 9
- SUP 1: $36.198 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $35.085/31.651 - 50-day EMA / Low May 15
- SUP 3: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
Trend conditions in Silver are unchanged, a bull cycle remains intact. The metal has recently traded through resistance at $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a key bull trigger. The break of it marks an important medium-term bullish development. Sights are on the $38.00 handle next. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $36.198, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would open $35.085, the 50-day EMA.
