SOFR OPTIONS: Creative Late Session Spreads/Strips

• Federal Funds Rate Range Maximum: 4.5% (UNCH)
• Number of dissenters on size of rate move: ZERO
• Median Projection of Fed Funds Rate at End of 2025: 3.9% (UNCH)
• Median Projection of Fed Funds Rate at End of 2026: 3.6% vs 3.4% PREV
• Median Projection of Fed Funds Rate at End of 2027: 3.4% vs 3.1% PREV
• Median Longer Run Projection of Fed Funds Rate: 3.0% (UNCH)
• Number of 2025 Dots > 4.375%: ZERO (UNCH)
• Number of 2025 Dots > 4.125%: 7 vs 4 PREV
• Number of 2025 Dots > 3.875%: 9 vs 8 PREV
• Number of 2025 Dots < 3.875%: 2 (UNCH)

• MNI: FED HOLDS RATES AT 4.25%-4.5%; VOTE 12-0
• FED: MEDIAN FOMC MEMBER SEES 2 CUTS IN 2025; 1 CUT IN '26
• FED: 7 OFFICIALS SEE NO CUT IN 2025; 8 SEE 2 CUTS
• FED: 2 OFFICIALS SEE 1 CUT IN 2025; 2 SEE 3 CUTS
• FED: 2025 PCE INFLATION REVISED UP TO 3.0%, 3.1% CORE
• FED: 2025 GDP GROWTH REVISED DOWN TO 1.4% FROM 1.7%
• FED:JOBLESS RATE REMAINS LOW; INFLATION SOMEWHAT ELEVATED
• FED: UNCERTAINTY 'DIMINISHED BUT REMAINS ELEVATED'

• RES 4: 0.8624 High Apr 21    
• RES 3: 0.8592 61.8% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8566 High Apr 24 
• RES 1: 0.8560 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 0.8552 @ 15:51 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 0.8498/8454 Low Jun 16 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.8407/8356 Low Jun 4 / Low May 29 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.8327 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support

A bullish theme in EURGBP remains intact and last week’s gains plus this week’s extension, reinforce current conditions. The cross remains above the 50-day EMA and the breach of the average highlights a stronger reversal. This signals scope for a climb towards 0.8592, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.8454, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would highlight a possible reversal.