US: Cracks Emerge In GOP Shutdown Strategy Ahead Of 6th Funding Vote In Senate

Local and political media outlets report that the result of the French no-confidence vote is not expected to be known until 1900CET (1800BST) at the earliest.

• PM Bayrou in theory has an unlimited amount of time to deliver his general policy address at 1400BST/1500CET.
• Following this address, speakers from each parliamentary group (eleven in total) will provide remarks. Speaking times depend on the number of seats each group holds in the National Assembly. From Le Figaro:
  • Ensenble Group: 35 mins
  • RN, DR and MODEM (Bayrou's party): 15 mins
  • Other groups (fewer than 35 deputies): 10 mins:
  • Speaker for non-registered deputies: 5 mins
• Following these speeches, Bayrou will then be able to speak again before votes begin.
• Le Parisien highlights that "The debates surrounding his previous general policy statement, on January 14, lasted approximately five hours, without a vote"

• On the commodity front, Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and last week’s gains plus today’s bullish start to the week, reinforce current conditions. The yellow metal has traded to a fresh all-time high. The break also confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3623.1, a 2.236 projection of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing. Initial firm support lies at $3440.0, the 20-day EMA.
• In the oil space, a bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest bull phase appears to have been a correction. The pullback from last Tuesday’s high highlights a possible reversal and the end of the corrective phase. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards $57.71, the May 30 low.

• RES 4: 114-10   High Apr 7 (cont.)
• RES 3: 114-00   Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 113-26+ 2.764 proj of the Jul 15 - 22 - 28 price swing 
• RES 1: 113-21+ High Sep 5
• PRICE:‌‌ 113-11+ @ 11:19 BST Sep 8
• SUP 1: 112-28+/112-07+ Low Sep 5 /  20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 111-24   50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 110-25   Low Aug 1 

Treasury futures rallied sharply higher on Friday and the contract remains closer to its recent highs The move higher highlights an acceleration of the uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. This paves the way for an extension through 113-21 next (piered), the 2.618 projection of the Jul 15 - 22 - 28 price swing. Initial firm support to watch is 112-07+, the 20-day EMA.