US: Cracks Emerge In GOP Shutdown Strategy Ahead Of 6th Funding Vote In Senate
At 11:20 ET 16:20 BST, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) will hold a sixth vote on the duelling Republican/Democratic government funding measures. Both bills are expected to fail with no change to the vote share.
- At 10:00 ET 15:00 BST, House Republican leadership will present a unified front at a press conference after House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) broadsided colleagues by declaring a bipartisan effort to extend Obamacare subsidies for one year a “nonstarter.”
- However, cracks in GOP strategy are emerging. Earlier this week, President Trump undermined GOP messaging by hinting at a bipartisan Obamacare deal. The White House has also offered mixed messaging on federal layoffs, threatening mass firings without issuing any reduction-in-force notices, and drawing rebukes from Johnson/Thune on reports the WH could deny backpay to furloughed workers.
- While no resolution appears imminent, pressure will mount in the coming days. Oct. 10, Federal workers will receive their last paychecks for September. On Oct. 13, fundraisers, local media events, and campaigning, during a planned Senate recess will be cancelled. Oct. 15, US troops, including active-service personnel, will miss paychecks. Within the next week or so, SNAP benefits for Women, Infants, and Children may run out of funding. On Oct. 20 and Oct. 31, respectively, Senate and House staffers will miss their first paychecks while lawmakers continue to be paid throughout.
- The implied probability of the shutdown extending to or beyond October 15 is 75%.
Figure 1: End Date of Govt Shutdown
Source: Polymarket
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FRANCE: Result of No-confidence Vote Not Expected Till 1900CET At The Earliest
Local and political media outlets report that the result of the French no-confidence vote is not expected to be known until 1900CET (1800BST) at the earliest.
- PM Bayrou in theory has an unlimited amount of time to deliver his general policy address at 1400BST/1500CET.
- Following this address, speakers from each parliamentary group (eleven in total) will provide remarks. Speaking times depend on the number of seats each group holds in the National Assembly. From Le Figaro:
- Ensenble Group: 35 mins
- RN, DR and MODEM (Bayrou's party): 15 mins
- Other groups (fewer than 35 deputies): 10 mins:
- Speaker for non-registered deputies: 5 mins
- Following these speeches, Bayrou will then be able to speak again before votes begin.
- Le Parisien highlights that "The debates surrounding his previous general policy statement, on January 14, lasted approximately five hours, without a vote"
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Gold Continues To Appreciate
- On the commodity front, Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and last week’s gains plus today’s bullish start to the week, reinforce current conditions. The yellow metal has traded to a fresh all-time high. The break also confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3623.1, a 2.236 projection of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing. Initial firm support lies at $3440.0, the 20-day EMA.
- In the oil space, a bear cycle in WTI futures remains intact and the latest bull phase appears to have been a correction. The pullback from last Tuesday’s high highlights a possible reversal and the end of the corrective phase. Initial resistance to watch is $66.56, the Aug 4 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards $57.71, the May 30 low.
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Bullish Structure
- RES 4: 114-10 High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 3: 114-00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 113-26+ 2.764 proj of the Jul 15 - 22 - 28 price swing
- RES 1: 113-21+ High Sep 5
- PRICE: 113-11+ @ 11:19 BST Sep 8
- SUP 1: 112-28+/112-07+ Low Sep 5 / 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 111-24 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
- SUP 4: 110-25 Low Aug 1
Treasury futures rallied sharply higher on Friday and the contract remains closer to its recent highs The move higher highlights an acceleration of the uptrend. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. This paves the way for an extension through 113-21 next (piered), the 2.618 projection of the Jul 15 - 22 - 28 price swing. Initial firm support to watch is 112-07+, the 20-day EMA.
