CHILE: CPI Inflation Ticks Down In May, Below Expectations

• EUR/USD: May08 $1.1200(E2.5bln), $1.1250(E1.5bln), $1.1390-00(E3.0bln), $1.1420-25(E1.3bln); May09 $1.1300(E1.3bln), $1.1375-85(E954mln), $1.1400-10(E1.1bln)
• USD/JPY: May08 Y142.00($1.1bln), Y143.00($1.6bln), Y145.00($1.3bln); May09 Y145.00($1.8bln); May12 Y142.45-50($1.0bln)
• USD/CAD: May09 C$1.3700($1.2bln), C$1.3750($1.2bln)
• USD/CNY: May08 Cny7.4500($1.5bln)

An opinion poll carried out by IFOP for the Hexagone Institute think tank has ruffled feathers among mainstream politicians, and the right-wing nationalist Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) reports Le Monde. Hexagone is affiliated with liberal-conservative entrepreneur Pierre-Edouard Stérin, and its latest poll garnered significant attention for only asking respondents about RN leader Jordan Bardella as the party's presidential candidate, fully excluding three-time candidate Marine Le Pen. Given the court sentence Le Pen received earlier this year that bars her from running for political office for five years, this may not seem controversial. However, Le Pen is pursuing an appeal, and there would appear to be a reluctance on behalf of her team to effectively concede that Bardella will run for the presidency in 2027. 

• The poll, carried out 11-30 April but published on 5 May, shows Bardella winning a first-round plurality no matter who opposes him from the centrist or centre-right blocs. His second round opponent looks most likely to be centre-right Horizons party leader and former PM Edouard Philippe, who comes in second place in all scenarios where he runs. In the scenario, centrist Renaissance former PM Gabriel Attal runs, he and Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau from the conservative Les Républicains each emerge with 14% support behind Bardella.
• Polling for a hypothetical second round shows Bardella and Philippe level on 50% each, while Bardella would beat Attal 52-48%. 

Chart 1. Hypothetical First Round Presidential Election Scenarios, %

Source: IFOP-Hexagone, MNI. Fieldwork 11-30 April, 9,128 respondents. 

Latest from Italian PM Meloni: "*MELONI: ITALY TO REACH 2% OF GDP DEFENSE SPENDING GOAL IN 2025" bbg

• For context, the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute estimated that Italian defence expenditure totalled E38bln in 2024, corresponding to 1.6% of GDP.