SWITZERLAND DATA: CPI Expected For Second Consecutive Print Within SNB Target

Wires are reporting that the EU parliament is to debate a motion of no confidence vs the European Commission, with a debate on Monday before a vote on Thursday. 

“*EU PARLIAMENT TO DEBATE MOTION OF NO-CONFIDENCE VS COMMISSION
*EU NO-CONFIDENCE DEBATE MONDAY, VOTE THURSDAY,ECR'S SIMION SAYS” – bbg

Politico run a similar story citing six officials, with the full story here.

• "It is the first time in more than a decade that the head of the Commission has faced such a move."
• "The latest challenge to the European Commission president [Ursula von der Leyen], in what is proving to be a rocky first year in her second term in power, will see the German forced to appear in a debate about her leadership among lawmakers in Strasbourg on Monday, followed by the vote three days later."
• “At this stage, the vote is mainly symbolic — the majority of political groups have already signaled that they will vote against the motion of no confidence — but it underscores the growing anger with her in Brussels after a string of controversial moves and scandals.”
• "If the no-confidence motion were to pass, it would lead to the resignation of the entire Commission and trigger the complex process of appointing 27 new European commissioners."

 There had been reports on the matter earlier in the day but it’s now seen as being official. 

This from Simion on X: 
@georgesimion "????It's official!

Motion of No-Confidence against @EU_Commission led by #UrsulavonderLeyen will be debated next Monday and voted next Thursday in the plenary session.

Time to be held accountable!"

• RES 4: 1.3852 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
• RES 3: 1.3835 High Oct 20 2021
• RES 2: 1.3800 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 1.3789 High Jul 01
• PRICE: 1.3599 @ 16:10 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: 1.3586/63 20-day EMA / Low Jul 02
• SUP 2: 1.3439 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.3338 Trendline support drawn from the Jan 13 low 
• SUP 4: 1.3140 Low May 12 and key support

A bull cycle in GBPUSD remains in play and a fresh cycle high Tuesday reinforces bullish conditions. This maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Today’s move lower appears to be a correction. Support to watch lies at 1.3586, the 20-day EMA. A break would signal scope for a deeper corrective pullback.         

Our FOMC Hawk-Dove Spectrum has shifted since pre-June FOMC to reflect some of the latest commentary on future easing. This is based in part on where we think (or in the case of Bostic and Kashkari, we know) they penciled in end-2026 rates in the June SEP (recall the median was 3.6%).

• We had to pick a "1 cut through end-2026" candidate and that is probably Logan, Hammack or Schmid - we guess the latter.
• Likewise despite Goolsbee not being the biggest dove for 2025, we think he probably continues to have the most dovish rate profile overall, with Bowman and Waller conversely front-loading their cuts.
• The Board is likely split largely between 3.4% and 3.6% end-2026, implying that most are eyeing 1-2 cuts in 2026 on top of 2 cuts by end-2025.