EU BASIC INDUSTRIES: Covestro: Q3 Results Headlines (COVEGR; Baa2/NR/NR)
Slight negative. Has a negative read-across for the industry. One-off hit from an external fire. Main story for the name is ADNOC takeover.
• Sales €3,171 -12% and a slight miss vs consensus.
• EBITDA €242m was well ahead of €192m consensus albeit from only 3 analysts.
• The company is painting a very negative picture for global demand and suffered a mid-double-digit million EBITDA impact of a fire in an electricity substation in Dormagen. Hopefully this is only a temporary setback.
• “continue to feel high price pressure and subdued demand worldwide”
• Focus on cost savings with €320m to be realized by end 2025. €400m annually by 2028.
• Guidance reduced: Full year EBITDA €700-800 (from €700-1.1bn)
• Guidance reduced: Free Op Cashflow €-400 €-200 (from €-400 to €+100)
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STIR: Modest Dovish Move In EUR Pricing After French CPI
A modest dovish drift in EUR STIRs since the softer-than-expected French inflation data (which comes after the softer-than-expected Spanish core & headline Y/Y CPI seen on Monday), with ECB-dated OIS now showing just over 9bp of easing through June vs. just below 9bp of easing over the same horizon pre-data. Meanwhile, Euribor futures have firmed at the margin, last flat to +2.0.
- German & Italian inflation data is now eyed through the remainder of today.
- With just under 10bps of easing priced through mid-26, markets may still be sensitive to a downside Eurozone core surprise. Some of the more dovish ECB officials continue to stress that inflation risks are tilted to the downside.
EUROPEAN INFLATION: France HICP Below Consensus
France HICP came in below consensus in September, at 1.07% Y/Y (vs 1.3% cons; 0.83% prior).
- National-level CPI was also below consensus, at 1.16% Y/Y (vs 1.3% cons; 0.88% prior).
- Sticking to the national-level CPI details:
- Services accelerated, to 2.44% Y/Y (from 2.14% in August).
- Energy inflation also moved higher, to -4.49% Y/Y (-6.21% August). Energy base effects are seen to be the main upward driver in the Eurozone-wide release this time.
- Food meanwhile also accelerated, from 1.60% to 1.74% in September. On a Eurozone-wide level, food was seen unchanged around 3.2% by analysts - but we've now seen accelerations from both France and Belgium (Spain gave no indication in their flash release on the category). This means the category is to watch in the German and Italian releases later today (especially after a recent ECB blog post drawing attention to its importance for inflation expectations).
- Manufactured goods saw little change in September, at -0.43% Y/Y (-0.32% prior).
AUDUSD TECHS: Bullish Outlook
- RES 4: 0.6763 1.382 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 3: 0.6726 1.236 proj of the Jun 23 - Jul 24 - Aug 21 price swing
- RES 2: 0.6660/6707 High Sep 18 / 17
- RES 1: 0.6628 High Sep 24
- PRICE: 0.6599 @ 08:01 BST Sep 30
- SUP 1: 0.6527/21 61.8% of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg / Low Sep 26
- SUP 2: 0.6484 76.4% retracement of the Aug 21 - Sep 17 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.6463/6415 Low Aug 27 / Low Aug 21 / 22 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6373 Low Jun 23
The AUDUSD uptrend remains intact and recent weakness appears to have been a correction. Note that last week the pair did breach support at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6552. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 0.6527 once again (pierced), a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a stronger reversal higher would refocus attention on 0.6707, Sep 17 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6628, Sep 24 high.
